Going Full Time on Betfair

No, not me! But as I didn't get round to trading yesterday I thought I'd take the time today to answer a question I get asked all the time. It's also one that pops up on the Betfair forums constantly so I'm hoping it's of interest. Basically it's the "going full time on Betfair" question. I often get asked if I've considered it and it seems every week someone on Betfair says they've been profitable for x number of months so shall they go full time? And is it really possible to make a living from Betfair?

Firstly yes. Of course it's possible to make a living from Betfair. My own results show that even messing around with £1k can provide consistent if small profits. Those playing with larger sums could - and do - make a lot more. But it's not that I want to concentrate on today. Instead I'm going to look at the decision making process and consequences of going full time. Afterall, just because something is possible it doesn't mean it's the right thing to do! The subject is something I've covered before in answers to questions in the various comments left on the blog but I thought it would be interesting to pull it all together in one place. And explain what my considerations would be if I were to go full time.

Existing life / Society's perceptions / Impact on close family

 Is what you have now really that bad? I mean do you really want become a full time gambler? Would it really be an improvement on the status quo? Just take a moment to consider how society views gamblers. No really. Just have a think about it. Maybe you remember the last time you laughed at the old git with nicotine stained fingers tossing away another losing slip in your local bookie? Or perhaps recall reading in a newspaper about a suicide caused by a failed gambler running up massive credit card debts in secret? OK. So that isn't you right? Fair enough. But rightly or wrongly these are the kind of images that help shape the general public's perception of gamblers. Mainstream society's view isn't a rosey one. Gamblers are losers. And this image will impact on you if you take the plunge.

Some examples. What will be the response if you try and get a mortgage and give your occupation as full time gambler? (I found it hard enough when I first started working for myself and didn't have two years of accounts!). Or maybe want some HP to buy a new car. What will your friends and family think? Or your wife / partner? Will they really be comfortable and happy if you jack in a job to gamble for a living? And what if you give up a job, don't make it and try to go back to standard employment. How are you going to explain that gap? Unless you lie can you think of any industry that will embrace a (failed) gambler more than someone who is equally competent but without the Walter Mitty belief that they can give up everything to make a living from betting on sports? You may as well tattoo the word Mug on your forehead before you get to the interview!

Ok. So it's all a bit doom and gloom. Deliberately so. But society's perception of gamblers is an important background consideration. Let's say you can get over that though. You'd rather make gambling your job than an enjoyable hobby. You have a supportive network of friends and family. Maybe you hate your job and want a change. Or don't have one to start with. You've made the decision to go full time. So what are the other issues you will face? 

Discipline and stress 

So we'll take it for granted that you've had the method and discipline to win constantly on Betfair and this has helped colour your decision to consider going full time. The question is can you maintain that discipline under conditions of increased stress? This is something I often ask myself when people query why I don't go full time. Sure I have a winning history on Betfair. And not one that just stretches back a few months. However, this winning history has been produced under circumstances where it doesn't really matter if I win or not. I'm lucky enough to work for myself from home, run my own gambling related business, and trading is my hobby. Make it my living and suddenly everything gets a little more stressful. The sums involved rise dramatically. Results suddenly count for more. I have to win. Because I have to pay the mortgage, find the money for a new bathroom, pay the bills. Some even have to pay for a wedding!


Now I'd like to think I would maintain my discipline. Not panic if I had a losing week. I've never really attached any real importance to results on a day by day basis preferring to take the longer term picture into account. But what if I lost two weeks in a row? And suddenly something big went wrong with the car. And a holiday still needed paying for. I wonder if I'd still have the discipline to stick to my money management rules. Or would I be tempted to chase in order to try and make the money I know I need? How would you react? Chase and get it wrong and you could wipe out. You wouldn't be the first or last. And then that's it. Game over. Thanks for playing. All your base are belong to us!

Of course, that's a doomsday scenario. The increased stress of having to win can be minimised through planning. Fail to prepare and prepare to fail and all that. Don't set daily targets. Look at the longer picture. A losing week shouldn't matter. Most importantly of all though if I ever went full time I'd want a considerable reserve of available funds incase things don't go to plan. This would take the pressure off me somewhat. Reduce the need for instant returns. And enable me to concentrate on the longer term big picture and hopefully maintain discipline as a result.

Betting / Trading can be boring 

It's true. Gambling isn't always the glamorous life it's cracked up to be! I get bored with it sometimes and I only trade part-time. The danger, of course, is boredom can lead to lack of discipline.

Perhaps more importantly though is the lifestyle change going full time can make. Although I haven't gone full time the point I'm getting at is something I have had experience of. Give up your job to sit infront of your tv and computer at home all day and you suddenly realise quite how much you appreciated the social interaction you got at work! I went from being a tabloid reporter, to a senior position in a leading online music PR company in the dot com boom that promoted some of the planet's biggest stars - with the endless invites and parties it entailed - to sitting at home with my laptop. Alone. Just like that. Overnight. I'll tell you now it was a shock. Sure I could still go out. But it was hard to adapt and get used to the change. I missed the daily chit chat, the gossip, the banter. The Christmas parties!! To put it simply, sitting home alone was bloody dull in comparison. And I started putting on weight!

Sure, there are answers to all these issues. You could chat with other full timers. Make extra effort to get out and interact. Make sure you excercise (vastly underrated when it comes to keeping a fit, clear and disciplined mind when trading), The point though is these are the kind of issues I'd anticipate if I was to go full time. It makes sense to plan for them in advance. It's all part of being prepared, organized and disciplined.

The future of exchanges, online gambling, in running betting and taxation
 
Every great empire has come to an end. Every new gadget becomes obsolete. The betting industry is no different. Remember the 90s when spread betting firms were the future of betting?! Exchanges replaced them. But it doesn't mean they will remain as popular for ever. And as popularity declines, so will liquidity, and with it your profit. Of course, I don't see an immediate decline. Exchanges are just such a fantastic idea. But would you risk your future on them? Are you really confident that what you do now would be possible in ten years? When, if you'd stuck at your job, you'd have had several promotions and pay rises? Which decision now looks best in the long run?

Something to consider. Last year millions of Americans played poker online daily. How many do today? 1% of that? Central government can kill an industry overnight if it chooses. And in the process wipe out your livelihood. Sure, the UK government is making encouraging noises on the betting industry. But policies can change. It took Labour less than a decade to switch from a policy of unilateral nuclear disarmament to embracing the nuclear deterrent. Now the question is not what to do with Trident but what to replace it with. Sure, in the UK at least, where the issue of government income from gaming revenue is settled, it's unlikely any turn around would cut off your livelihood. But when making life changing decision such as becoming a full time gambler such risks have to be considered.

There are two other issues that I think about when asked why I haven't gone full time. In running betting and taxation. I make my money as a trader from in running betting. I have a standard Sky set up and I use some trading software. Nothing out of the ordinary then. But it doesn't mean I don't worry about the future of in running betting. What if the Gambling Commission, or similar body, decided that because some people's pictures are delayed more than others they will level the field by banning in running betting? I'd be screwed! Now as unlikley as I think something like this happening is it doesn't mean it won't. And it doesn't mean I don't worry when UK newspapers run junk stories about people getting ripped off because shrewdies are beating the Betfair clock.


As for taxation on winnings - the subject is huge! And I don't intend to go through it all here. I've seen the Inland Revenue website, I have my accountant's advice and I follow it. But what's to say in a few years a distinction won't be made between say recreational and professional gamblers? With professional gamblers - however such a thing is defined - liable to pay income tax. Suddenly a large advantage of gambling for a living disappears. And you have to make a minimum of 30% - and more likely 40% more - just to keep your income level. And don't think you'll just glide under the radar either. If you disappear from view in the tax man's eyes you will get a letter asking what you are doing. Just check the relevant threads on the Betfair forums for proof!

Just because your profitable method works now...
 
...It doesn't mean it always will. I always give the same example for this. Because it's a good one. It involves a guy who was in the 0.7% of Betfair users who was making over £15k a year profit on exchange last time the figures were released. Relatively speaking he was a big winner. Betfair valued his business so much he had his own personal account manager. Life was good - until he lost the lot. And then ran up enormous debts maxing out credit cards in an effort to chase his losses. His mistake? Failing to adapt. His edge disappeared. He eventually realised. But couldn't replace it. So started betting blindly hoping for luck. He went from big winner to big loser to Gamblers Anonymous. All within a year or so.

Read The Story of Ster in his own words.

I read that page often. Because I know I've had edges in markets in the past that have been eroded. Fortunately I've so far managed to find replacements. But the time I don't is the time I'll stop winning anywhere near as consistently as I'm lucky enough to do so at present. Now I've no idea when that will be. If ever. But one thing I do know is it would make me think twice before giving everything up to become a full time gambler. I've seen my edges disappear in the past. I'd be negligent to think it won't happen again.

One more thought in this area. Going full time for me would mean a large increase in stakes. This wouldn't only have a psycological impact that would need addressing. But, of course, I'd want to actually check the methods I get away with using now would actually work with ten times the stake. It's obvious. But easy to overlook. And I can see now that some strategies wouldn't. 

Loss of benefits

Pretty straightforward this one. If, like me, you're self employed, or a full timer on Betfair, you don't get benefits such as proper sick pay, holiday pay or maternity pay. Nothing. A serious illness could be financially devastating and again illustrates the importance of having a healthy sum of money behind you before you start. As well as obviously making it a no brainer to have some kind of insurance in place for if you do fall ill. 

Conclusions 

Well, reading through all that it's both longer than I thought it would be (sorry!) and all a little negative too. I don't mean to put people off. There's plenty of people out there who are full time making large sums of money from Betfair and they have my respect and good wishes. Besides which we're all adults and are perfectly capable of making our own decisions anyway.

But as the going full time on Betfair question is asked so frequently I hope it's of some use that I've outlined some of the considerations I have been through when mulling the question over. I'm lucky in that I'm in an unusual position that would make it relatively easy for me to make the step but still I have resisted it. Those who do take it will need to be prepared, organised and disciplined. They'll need to cope with changes in their lifestyle, be happy with being viewed somewhat as an outsider, and hope factors out of their control, such as legislation, don't interfere adversely.

Which all leads me to believe that yes it is possible to go full time on Betfair and make a good living. Of course it is. A killing even. But I'm not sure it's something I'd want to do. And if I were to it is something I would approach with a relatively short time frame in mind. Get in. Make my money, invest it wisely as I go along, and get out. Or at least be ready to get out quickly if circumstances change. I don't know. Maybe I don't crave the title of "full timer" as many on Betfair seem to. Maybe I just don't have the bottle. Or feel I have too much to lose by trying it. But it just always seems to me that if you're winning with a hobby you need a pretty good reason not to just increase your stakes overtime in relation to your bank and continue with multiple income streams. And this is probably the route I'll take.

That said, the very best of luck to any of you that decide to go for it....

(This post, part of a series of classic posts, was first published before in 2007, shortly before Betfair introduced the Premium Charge. If you're thinking of going full time this is another consideration to take into account.

This is actually the most read post on the entire blog with hundreds of people each month still finding their way to it through search engines.)

Cutting Losses and Running Profits.

This is one of the big ones. One of trading's 10 commandments as it were. And although it's going to be like teaching many readers to suck eggs it's an important trading tip so I thought I'd document it on the blog.

The tip really can be defined as simply as this... Cut your losses and let your wins run.

The concept behind it is simple. When trading we're pretty much trying to maximise our profits while protecting our bankroll and losing as little of it as possible in the process. Of course, the concept, and the reality of having the discipline to actually do it, are two totally different things. Especially on the taking a loss side of the equation. When in a losing position the temptation is always there to just "hang on" until things turn round, no matter how experienced a trader may be.

There's no need to take my word for all of this though. Let me use an example. One regarding legendary Wall Street trader Jesse Livermore that can be found in the excellent Reminiscences of a Stock Operator. In the book by Edwin Lefevre, Livermore goes under the name Larry Livingstone and, early in his career, has this to say after turning a multi million dollar fortune into comparitively nothing while trading commodities:

"It seems incredible that knowing the game as well as I did and with an experience of 12 or 14 years of speculating in stocks and commoditites I did precisely the wrong thing.

"The cotton showed me a loss and I kept it. The wheat showed me a profit and I sold it out. It was an utterly foolish play....

"Of all speculative blunders there are few greater than trying to average a losing game.... Always sell what shows you a loss and keep what shows you a profit. That was so obviously the wise thing to do and was so well known to me that even now I marvel at myself for doing the reverse."

I can't really improve on that. It sums it all up about as well as it can be summed up! It's dynamite advice and easily transferable to sports trading on betting exchanges such as Betfair.

So that's the concept sorted. What about the practicalities? How do we go about implementing this trading strategy? Well let's take a basic look at each part of the tip - cutting losses and letting wins run.

Cutting losses

This really is as straightforward as planning. When we open a position we should know where we are going to close it if the market moves against us. The point at which to set that bail out price is a whole different subject but how we arrive at it doesn't matter for now. The important thing is there should be a bail out point.

This means we should never lose more than a set amount on a trade. Which helps protect our bankroll and leaves us plenty of money to get involved again. Essentially it stops us just staring blankly at a screen as the market price simply runs away from us leaving us facing growing losses. It keeps us in the game. And in control. While at the same time preventing that awful feeling we've all no doubt had where the price is running against us and we're just hoping "something happens" to turn it around so we can get out for a smaller loss or even break even. As the Jesse Livermore example shows though, and as some of my recent results show, knowing all this and putting it in practice are two totally different things. Having the discipline to actually implement the stop loss can be the hardest thing to do.

Letting wins run

This is the nice part! But also has its difficulties. As the temptation to take a profit, any profit, can be large. Long term though we will make far more if we let our profits run. Imagine how much just 5 extra ticks in each completed trade (open and closed) would make to your own trading over 50 trades. Or 500. Or 5,000.

While letting our wins run we are, of course, also trying to protect the profit we've already made. Give as little of it back as possible as it were. One way of doing this is to implement a trailing stop loss. For example, say we've backed something at 1.8 and the price is now 1.6. We might say to ourselves if the price hits 1.7 we'll cut the position drifting against us and take the ten point profit we still have at 1.7. If the price continues to drop however, say to 1.5 we might move our trailing stop to 1.6. And so on.

There's really so much more that can be said and discussed on this subject of cutting losses and letting profits run but in a nutshell that's it. Naturally we should weigh up all the circumstances involving each market we enter when considering exactly how to implement everything. I certainly alter my strategies depending on market conditions. For example, in the recent Twenty20 World cup I was still happy to let wins run but was far more willing to take a quick profit when it was available than I am in, say and ODI or test match. This was simply because of the increased volatility. Of course I was still cutting losses as usual. I guess the point is this. The trading strategy is a winner. But as with all strategies we need to consider how best to implement them in the markets we are getting involved with.

(This article, reproduced as part of a classic posts series, was first published in November 2007. The advice is as good today as it was then! And the Lefevre book is still well worth a read for anyone who hasn't got round to it.)

Help Yourself To Free Money

I'm not a fan of the free money threads on the Betfair forums as regular readers will know. But sometimes the betting exchange really does offer you free money and in this entry I'm going to outline how you can take advantage of it as a trading tip.

To be honest it's not the best trading tip to offer up. Bit of a cheat in fact. But as it happened twice the other day and I have screenshots of both examples I thought I'd blog about it while it is still fresh and relevant.

Sharp-eyed readers may have noticed that in the last week or so I have added a categories section to the right hand side bar. To keep up to date with all the tips I'll be publishing just click on the Trading Tips section there. At some point I'll also run through all my old blog entries and add any old entries that are relevant.

Help Yourself to Free Money

Ok. I've already said it's not the best tip. In fact it's snidey. Not as much as a trap bet. But all's fair in love and war. And besides, if someone is really so desperate to give their money away who says I can't take my share of it? I have in the past and I will continue to do so.

The tip is simple. And it is this........ Leave lays below the true market price.

Eh? I hear you asking after you've read that far for that piece of toss? Well bare with me. And take a look at this graph.... (click it for a larger image)


Anything stand out about this graph from the 1st test between India and Pakistan? Like the massive plunge in the draw price from the mid 2.1x range to 1.36?! What caused this? Well, it's simple. Someone or something (a rebellious bot?!) made a mistake. A bet was submitted to back the draw at a price at least as low as 1.36. For all we know it might have even been 1.01 but finally got fully filled at 1.36.

Now see the advantage of leaving a lay below the true market price? Yes. I've said it's snidey. But if people make mistakes I'm no saint. I'm going to take advantage. It's not as if people don't benefit from my stupid mistakes.

Call me fickle but I distinguish between this and a deliberate trap bet. In a trap bet the price might be 1.5 to lay and someone might ask 16 on the back side in a deliberate attempt to trick someone into laying them at stupid odds. Here there is no attempt to deceive. We're simply leaving a lay up and waiting for someone to make a mistake. And if they do we profit from it. They feel stupid. And learn from the mistake.

OK, I hear you say. But look at the sums involved. Peanuts were matched at the wrong prices. Well it is peanuts to some. But a profit is a profit. And much larger sums are matched during these mistakes too as this graph shows.... (click the graph for a larger image.)

Ok, this screenshot was taken immediately after the mistake so the price movements appear more spread out than if viewed in a longer time frame. That doesn't really matter though. The point is the New York Jets were playing the Dallas Cowboys. The Cowboys started at 1.1x and their price never got bigger. Yet someone has backed the Jets all the way down to 1.21. And this time it wasn't for peanuts. It took several thousand pounds to get the price that low. Nearly £4k was bet at evens alone. If you had layed that you could have immediately backed it back at 25+, or layed the Cowboys at 1.0x for a huge guaranteed profit. Leaving lays below the true market price suddenly seems a little more worthwhile now doesn't it?!

Alright I hear you ask. But how often do mistakes like this happen? Well, who knows. I guess you could use Betfair historical data to get a pretty good idea. But i'm happy to just know it works. As for these two examples? Well, they both happened last Thursday. I only looked in on a few markets. I wasn't looking for examples. They just cropped up while I was going about my normal trading business. Sure, to see two examples in a day in the 3 or 4 markets I looked in on might be a little unusual. But consider this - there are thousands of markets each day on Betfair. 

The irony is most people don't even realise these mistakes are being made. Why not? Because they use the traditional Betfair interface. Their odds refresh every 30 seconds unless they refresh them manually. The action is all done and dusted before they realise it even happened. Fast refreshing trading software makes it all too clear what is going on though. To such an extent that even if you haven't left a lay in at below the true market value you can very often pick off these mistake bets before the person who made it realises what they've done and cancels it.

So there you have it. You can do worse than leave a lay at below the true market odds. It ain't pretty or cultured. It's taking full advantage of the mistakes of others. And it works. Just be careful. Afterall, you don't want to get caught yourself if you are too slow to cancel and something happens in the event you are trading to make your price value! Of course, there's nothing to stop you just leaving the lay up even below that level in the hope...

(This post was first published in November 2007. The sniping / fat finger world has moved on an incredible amount since then  but this kind of strategy still picks up free ticks each month for me.)

Important cricket betting statistic

Tomorrow's ODI match between South Africa and Australia throws up one of the most standout stats in world cricket. If you're planning on betting on the match I'd suggest you hang back until you've read this article and considered the implications.

This is the kind of info I've been using profitably and swapping with other traders for years to help me with my own efforts at turning a profit. Obviously the information will not guarantee you, or me, a winner. But it should help inform our betting / trading on the match. And hopefully we can show a profit :-)

Put simply in day / night ODI games* at Capetown, where this match is being played, the team batting first has won 92% of the games since the turn of the century. (11 of 12) To put that in perspective in over 300 day night ODIs* around the world over the same timeframe the team batting first has won 55%.

In spread betting supremacy terms this equates to an average team batting first supremacy at the ground in the sample stats of 68.6 compared to an all match 11.5.

Now, of course historical stats can't guarantee what will happen in the future. Playing conditions tomorrow will have to be taken into account (the forecast is set fair). But stats like this can give a pretty good indication of what it likely to happen and I know for sure that I'd far rather go into this game knowing this information than not knowing it. It's a great example of showing the value of research in cricket betting.

A more detailed betting preview of the game, with more stats and discussion on betting on the match, can be found here:

South Africa v Australia 3rd ODI Preview

Good luck if you get involved!


* full completed day / night games between the 8 major cricketing nations.

Dyson blows Duckworth Lewis calculation

Off on an short trip to Spain in the morning but thought I'd say a few words about the Duckworth Lewis debacle in the first ODI between the West Indies and England before I leave for warmer climes.

I guess if you lost money on the match because of the farcical end then you're probably counting yourself more than a little unlucky though I'll have something to say about that later. First up though let's talk about the incident itself.

My immediate reaction is you just have to giggle. You can read about the Dyson Duckworth Lewis Mistake there but essentially the West Indies' coach pulled his team off the pitch when they were offered bad light thinking they had won via the Duckworth Lewis method. Only to find out he had been reading the wrong line of a spread sheet - and they had, in fact, lost by one run. By which time it was too dark to go back out. Doh!

It brings back memories of Alan Ball desperately telling his Manchester City players to keep the ball shielded by a corner flag in the dying stages of an end of season game when the reality of the situation was they needed to score to prevent demotion. A howler. No more. No less.

That Dyson had made a mistake was immediately obvious by both the bemused but smiling England faces as they walked off the pitch looking at their own Duckworth Lewis sheet, as well as the excited tones of the Sky commentators who, realising they were on to a big story, revelled in the numbers being fed through by their "stats guys".

Fair play to Dyson who, after pointing suspiciously at his spreadsheet several times and storming off to see the match officials, finally realised he'd just made the mother of all balls ups. At which point he held his hands in the air and apologised to all and sundry insisting the mistake was entirely his responsibility. A refreshing attitude for sure. If not one likely to go down well in the West Indies' dressing room where tensions are already running high.

Anyway, it's not the first time Duckworth Lewis has caused considerable embarrassment and probably won't be the last. But for the sake of the game it would be nice to think we can avoid these little errors going forward...

Speaking of mistakes a quick word on trading that match. I didn't get involved too deeply and by the time the farce unfurled I was sitting with a small four figure all green and just enjoying the cricket.

My point is really this though. I had levelled out. And was quite surprised to see so many people, particularly traders, posting on the Betfair forum claiming the mistake had cost them x amount of money. For several minutes, with both the light and rain closing in, the closeness of the Duckworth Lewis score and the impact wickets would have, staying involved in that market was madness. By that stage there was no real skill in whether people won or lost on trades being matched. It was a pure gamble. Hardly the environs of a trader looking for consistent profit.

I can maybe understand someone in an effectively all red position chasing a win. I don't agree with the strategy but I guess it's none of my business. What really suprised me though was people who had enough green on one side or another to secure a profit gambling 8 hours of trading away on what was essentially a punt. Of course, some came out of the situation all smiles while others, typically more vocal, bemoaned their bad luck.

I don't think it was bad luck. The odds were all over the place with flip flopping favourites. That's because it was a gamble. Both teams could win. If you had the chance to take a profit but chose the greed route instead on a 50/50 shot (literally at some points) and ended up losing then that's just probability coming home to roost. The method of losing the 50/50 shot is not important. The basic mathematical set up is.

The same can be said for those who had could have had all red books but decided to keep a small green on one side and large red on another. Suffering a sizeable loss here is just a consequence of preferring a gamble to cutting losses. Don't get me wrong. I'm not revelling in the losses of others. But when people start posting their positions on public forums and moaning about bad luck I'll often look at what they're saying and think about it.

In this instance I think it's fair comment that much of the damage was self inflicted and there's probably a lesson in there for all us traders. We will win sometimes and we all lose sometimes. Of course we do. Sometimes though it's too easy to blame unusual circumstances for losses when perhaps the truth is our own decision making at critical times was the real reason and an unusual event is just a convenient excuse.

I don't know, I guess cutting losses or guaranteeing a win in a highly volatile flip flopping market rather than trying to guess who wins and gambling a match worth of trading away in a couple of minutes is just more my personal style. Bemoaning bad luck in these circumstances is a little baffling though.

Anyway, I've probably banged on about that for long enough. No offence intended to anyone who lost. Just my views on it. One last thing before I turn the computer off - Mark Iverson.

I'm sure anyone who is / was a regular reader of his blog has seen that he has decided to finish it and has made a goodbye post. A big shame as the blog was one of the best out there - thoughtful, insightful and well written. If you've not visited his blog for a while though and you've enjoyed his thoughts as much as I have over the years now's your chance to say so and wish him luck with the future.

New Zealand v India 5th ODI

Just a quick one as I'm off out soon for drinks and dinner before an early night to get some kip in before the 5th and final ODI between New Zealand and India later.

If you're interested in the match at all there is a betting preview on CricketEdge. It's pretty long but well worth a read. Food for thought anyway. I agree with much of it. There's a betting preview posted on most televised matches on that site if you like it and want some ideas for future matches.

There's also a tip for Dhoni to top bat. If you're looking for a cast iron winner I'd avoid it but I can't really argue that the price is probably a bit of value if you're taking the long term view.

Anyway, hope you find the articles useful. Any comments or feedback would be welcome. Just to make it clear, although I did not write those two articles, I have written some for that site it so have a vested interested of sorts.

It also means any feedback will get passed on to the guys writing the previews so if there's anything else you'd like to see in them going forward just leave a comment below.

Baby, CricketEdge and Premium Charge

I realise no posts since last June makes me a poor excuse for a blogger so apologies for that. I've explained why I've been away on the various forums when people ask but basically so much has been happening I just haven't had the time. Like I said - a poor excuse!

So what has been going on? Well first up the big news is we're having a baby! We're both chuffed to bits and looking forward to the big day sometime in late June / early July. All a bit overwhelming really and it means i've finally had to sort all the DIY around the house out. I can safely say I hope I never have to rip floorboards up again. Exciting times though and we're busy choosing all kinds of baby stuff and getting the nursery ready. Can't wait. :-)

What else? Well in my last blog entry I said I was going to write a whole load of cricket trading articles. I have. Though after I wrote that entry I was contacted by some other cricket traders and asked if I would consider joining them in setting up a new cricket news and betting website. I agreed. The site is called CricketEdge and it's recently gone live.

Helping out with that site has taken up quite a bit of time and effort. There's a fair amount of content on it now with a whole lot more waiting in the wings, including the series of trading articles I've written, so hopefully they'll be up soon. In the mean time there's some pretty useful, if basic, articles on cricket betting among loads of other stuff that you may find interesting.

The idea is to build a community of cricket fans and punters / traders and a forum will be added soon to enable the discussion. Involved as I am I'm biased I know but the guys behind it are a good laugh, know their cricket betting and I hope the site succeeds. Hell, we may even make some money out of it!

Talking of money that brings me to trading. Yes, I am still very involved in the cricket markets. More so than ever in fact. Of course, the big news since my last post has been the introduction of the Premium Charge over at Betfair. There, I managed to say it without swearing.

In that last post I mentioned I was moving much of my betting activity away from Betfair in as much as it enabled me to capitalise on the knowledge I built up on each match by using markets available at bookmakers as well as spread firms. Basically allowing me to maximise my profit from the knowledge and views I had on a game.

This has helped me offset the impact of the premium charge a little but I've still had to alter my approach pretty drastically to cut down on the amount of charge I'm paying. On the whole this has involved me racking up substantial losses on Betfair when needed while holding an opposite position elsewhere. Extra effort for me, a pain in the butt but also what Betfair wants as it means more money stays in the Betfair pool for longer.

I must admit it's a strange feeling to sometimes set out in a market to deliberatley lose money in it, or trade it as normal and then transfer the green elsewhere, but I suppose it's better than not being able to use the exchange at all. Still sucks though, as our American cousins might say.

So that's that. I'm still around, still trading and am looking forward to having a junior BFT to dote on soon.

I will be updating my blog every now and then going forward for anyone who is still remotely interested in my ramblings. I guess after such a miserable effort to do so after last time I won't say anything more than just as and when I have something interesting to say - and the time to say it in. In the meantime good luck with your betting! :-)

Hello world (again). Anyone out there?

Err, yeah. So I've been away. Bit longer than planned as it happens. Ok. Much longer then. So sorry about that. I'd planned a short break but with so many other things going on guess i just got lazy about restarting it all. Nice to see some Betfair forum diehards hassling me every now and then to start up again though. Thanks for the support and for better or worse here I am. Blogging again. I don't know, I must be mad. And as for you reading my ramblings.... ;-)

One of the interesting things about stopping was seeing all the theories as to why I had. I'm sure I said I was going to and explained why before I did. And I did try to answer the question on various Betfair Forum threads several times. Some of the explanations I came across were that I was a Betfair plant, had done my bank and nads in or had just made the whole thing up. While one cheeky fecker decided I had succombed to early marital pressures and was under my new wife Emma's thumb and unable to trade! (Cheers for that one pj!) Well, all are wrong :-) Truth is I'm still trading. More than ever in fact.

So some of the questions I've been asked the most via email / MSN over the last few months...

Will you be starting the blog up again?

Yes! From now. But it will be different. I got bored of the daily grind of talking about how much I'd won or lost and why. At first it seemed an interesting thing to do. And it was a nice way of keeping up to date with how much I'd saved for my wedding.

Once the wedding and honeymoon was sorted I kind of lost interest though. Tried a new challenge to turn the £1k into £100k but again that just meant I ended up droning on about how much I'd won or lost even more. It just got a bit dull to write to be honest. I much preferred discussing the various trading ideas / techniques / theories that we all use. So that's what I intend to do going forward. Not as many updates. But hopefully ones that are of more interest. Or more interesting for me to write anyway. Sure I'll discuss some wins and losses if there is something worth chatting about. But just not every day with a running tally.

How's the trading going? Done your bank or made the £100k?

It's going well thanks :-) Though no, I haven't turned the £1k into £100k. With a little luck maybe I'll get to mention that one day soon. :-) I have been trading a lot though. And although I will shy from mentioning figures as much as in the past I'll post up last month's results to give an idea of how I've been doing recently. Partly to show I didn't do my bollocks in. And also because it was my best month to date on Betfair and I was bloody pleased with it!


That said it hasn't all been plain sailing. A couple of months ago I had my first losing month on Betfair since starting the blog in May 2006. It wasn't a big loss and I was not all doom and gloom about it. Disappointed yes but it was still a profitable month. Only though because my attentions are increasingly focussed on other betting and trading opportunities in conjunction with Betfair. I still use Betfair the most but since the wedding have increasingly used bookmakers and spread firms to try to maximise any profit available from my reading of the various in running situations I come across in the events I trade. Can't think why I hadn't explored this properly before as it can add a fair bit to the bottom line so a big thankyou to the people who've pointed me in the right direction in doing this. You know who you are!

Can you tell me how to make money on Betfair?

I don't think I'd be exaggerating if I said I've had thousands of emails asking this since starting the blog. I used to try to reply to them all but just couldn't keep up in the end. Basically I don't have an easy step by step guide and anyway there are people out there who are far smarter traders than me who make a lot more money than I ever will. I guess I just found some ideas that work for me and overtime if you look hard enough maybe you will too. I've discussed a lot of my ideas and strategies on the blog in the past and will do so going forward so perhaps that might be a place to start.

So what else? Well the the betting blogosphere seems to have changed a lot since I stopped. Many blogs appear to have died a death while John's over at The Gambler has turned into an enjoyable read about all things life rather than gambling. Especially pleased to see Mark Iverson is still going strong and that Matt over at Punt has managed at least the odd update! Just hope Ray over at The Sports Trader gets the bug again someday soon. Anyway, guess I'll get round to updating the links to them all sometime soon. If you have a gambling blog and want a link just let me know and I'll add one when I change them.

Right, that's it for now. Rambled on a bit longer than expected there but hope it answered some questions. I'll be busy trading the Trent Bridge test match over the next few days but hopefully will get round to updating again sometime soon. See you then hopefully!

Happy New Year

Result since last update: £2342.98

Well that's a bit surprising! Mainly because I didn't really get too involved in anything between Christmas and New Year. Did a lot a eating, drinking and family stuff so missed the start and end of the two test matches, traded a set or two of darts and a a single quarter of an NFL match. Looking at the result maybe I should take this less hands on approach into the New Year!

Obviously pleased the results. Nice bit of unexpected green to add to December's results. My most successful market was the first test between South Africa and West Indies. Only caught a few sessions really but there were some absolutely staggering prices available. Knowing I was unable to do much of the match, including the scheduled end, I just kept my liabilities limited and my position in such a way that I could leave it at any moment. I know I discussed the price on the 3rd night / start of the 4th day with some people on MSN but I'm aware it still smacks a little of aftertiming to say the the price on South Africa seemed sheer lunacy. From memory everyone and their dog on the Betfair cricket forum was of a similar view so I'm sure some very nice wins were landed. As it is I couldn't do the start of the 4th day so just left my book in an all green position with some weighting towards the West Indies. Was able to look in later in the day but by then the West Indies were 1.2x and I'd missed all the real action. Still, there's more to life than trading and despite the missed opportunity I'm more than happy with the result.

Anyway, I'll tot it all up another time but from a quick look through my results I'm staggered. It appears I've made over £45k profit this year - while still trading with a £1k bank for the first few months. Tell you something now - if you'd offered me that kind of result at the start of the year when I was still saving for my wedding I'd have wripped your hand, elbow and arm clean off!

Anyway, off to celebrate the new year now. Hope you and yours have a great one tonight and 2008 is a winning year for you. Happy New Year!

Merry Christmas

So I didn't get round to trading that late NFL match last night as I got sidelined. Ended up watching The Hustler again which is always worth a viewing. :-)

Anyway, just thought I'd say Merry Christmas and all that. Thanks for reading the blog this year and hope you have a good one over the festive season and that Santa delivers a few winners for you.

Latest trading results

Result since last update: £967.53

Whoa! I said there could be some dynamite trading opportunities in the last two days of the final test between Sri Lanka and England and it looks like traders that involved weren't let down. Sri Lanka were 1.2x at the time of writing from memory. I believe the draw hit a similar price on day 4 before blowing to 2.7x + on the fifth - and then rushing back in to 1.01! Sure there were some small fortunes won and lost on that little lot.

As I mentioned in my last blog entry I was unable to get involved in the last couple of days. Was spending some time in London with Emma. All good fun and refreshing to have a few days away from trading. Even is the christmas shopping crowds were little short of a nightmare!

The profit since the last update mainly comes from that final test. Had greened out for a reasonable win despite the result before heading off to London. Took a £200 hit on Sangakarra as top Sri Lankan batsman for the series but some profit on today's NFL more than accounted for that and left me with just shy of £1k profit on Betfair since the last update. Happy with that! Also made a bit elsewhere having got the draw with some books at 6/4 early doors as previously mentioned elsewhere. Didn't let that run but layed it off at various odds on prices elsewhere to effectively hedge for an equal all green position on that too. Smiles pretty much all round on the trading front then. Certainly helped out with buying some Christmas presents anyway :-)

Anyway, may do some of this late NFL game shortly before another few days away from trading. Will be back with another entry tomorrow anyway.

Trading update

Result since last update: £539.79

It seems I keep starting new posts with apologies for not updating the blog more regularly recently but again things have been both very busy with normal work and I've also been snowed under preparing for some changes to my trading in the new year. Both on Betfair, the results for which I record on this blog - and the other exchanges / bookmakers and spread firms I use.

I was considering finishing the blog at the end of the year but sentiment and a few encouraging messages (thanks) have more or less persuaded me to keep it going. That said I'll probably change the format from a daily results round up to more of a notepad for my thoughts on trading and comments on various events. Something more along the lines of Punt I guess. But with a few more updates ;-) I don't know. If I do that I'll explain my reasoning at a later date as some at least might find it interesting. See how I feel after the festive period I guess.

As for my trading since the last update. Well, not managed to look in on the darts yet but have done some Twenty 20, NFL and ODIs and that's what makes up the green. Had a nice early green wiped out in an abandoned ODI but not much I can do about that. On the down side I've a £200 loss on Sangakarra as top Sri Lankan series batsmen to book soon. But more than making up for that is an all green position on the Galle test between Sri Lanka and England.

The rest of the test could provide some dynamite trading opportunities but I'm not going to be able to get involved further. Am off to London in the morning to do some shopping before taking Emma to the ballet for her annual Nutcracker fix. Staying over and going out for drinks and dinner too. Should be a great little break and will be back at some point over the weekend when I'll update again.

Testing times

Result since last update: £662.38

It's great to see cricketers back in whites. Competing at "proper" cricket in a true test of tactical savvy, concentration and endurance. But while I love test cricket - and especially trading it - recent matches have proved tough for me. Just not been getting them quite right - at least on the exchanges - and keep being left to look at what could have been.

The two tests earlier this month were a little hit and miss for me - winning on one, losing on the other - and the end of yesterday's third test between India and Pakistan proved to be another frustrating one. Eventually made a tiny profit on the game - from what had been a moderate one - when, realistically 12 balls away from an agreed draw, Pakistan embarked on a suicide mission losing wickets almost as quick as I could utter abuse in their general direction!

The end of today's second test between Sri Lanka and England bought better news and is where most the profit since the last update comes from. Always happy with a profit but can see where I went wrong earlier in the match which ultimately cost me a far larger win.

Anyway, I've done a review of my trading in the last few tests to try and see exactly where I've not been getting things quite right. Always useful to review relatively poor performances and all worth bearing in mind as we go forward to the final test at Galle next week. And, indeed, over the next couple of months where there is a pretty full test cricket schedule that will hopefully provide some nice profits!

Twenty 20: Australia v New Zealand

Today's result: £427.4

Nothing like a bit of Twenty 20 to get the old blood pumping. Enjoyed today's smack and run fest between Australia and New Zealand. Made a nice distraction from the two tests that are grinding along at the moment and added some green to the monthly balance.

Only transferred over a little money to the Australian wallet for the match. Decided I didn't want to get involved too heavily but was happy to have a go. I got on the Aussies fairly early, was in and out a few times but essentially as they racked up 186 it was always likely to be too much for for New Zealand to chase.

As indeed it was. Only saw the first 5 overs or so of the Black Cap reply. By then the price was 1.01 and I was out of the market and back on the test matches. Not looked up what their final score was but it was looking pretty woeful when I left the game. Anyway, not complaining. Made around £370 on the match. The other £55 or so came from a couple of quick look ins on some NFL earlier in the week.

Was an interesting story to come out of the Twenty 20. Aussie state cricketer Luke Pomersbach was parking up at the WACA with his girlfriend to watch the match when he got a call from the Aussie team asking if he could play! Brad Hodge had hurt his back in the dressing room and instead of watching the match with his paid for ticket in the stands Pomerbach took to the field and picked up 15 from 7 balls at the innings' death - including a 6 and a 4. One of the stranger international debuts you're likely to come across!

Quick round up

Result since last update: £230.19

Firstly apologies for the lack of updates over the last week or so. I have traded a few things but my mind has been on some other issues which could see some pretty big changes at BFT Towers. Not bad news but important enough to require considerable time, thought and effort. Haven't really resolved all the issues yet but if / when I do I'll let everyone know as it will no doubt result in wholesale changes to the blog too. In fact at the moment my thinking is I'll probably just wind it down.

Anyway, haven't actually had a settled result for days but the profit since the last update comes from cricket and NFL. Had a pretty good win on the 2nd test between India and Pakistan but gave around the same amount back on the 1st test between Sri Lanka and England. The balance comes from a few NFL matches that I had quick look ins on.

Have started doing the two test matches that are ongoing at the moment. Small profits showing on each at present. Better results away from the exchanges on them though with a little luck both will show a good profit on Betfair before they end!

Apologies again for the lack of updates but sometimes there are just more important things to do than the blog. Emma has returned from her 2 week business trip too so been spending time with her and catching up. Going forward, in the immediate future I'm planning to get back to more regular updates again. I'll also try and reply to all the emails I've not had time to and the odd comments below as well. In the meantime good luck with your own trading. :-)

New Zealand hammer South Africa

Yesterday's Result: £341.99

Well that was a bit of a turn up for the books. New Zealand crushed South Africa by 7 wickets in yesterday's ODI, levelled the series 1-1 and set up what could be a thrilling decider. Which all resulted in a nice win for me after my loss last time out.

I actually made around £358 on the match odds market and lost around £16 on an innings runs one - a market I'm starting to pay increasing attention too despite the sporadic liquidity. But while the New Zealand victory might have been emphatic my trading was a little less cocksure. In fact I found the match a pretty tough one to call - ridiculous as that sounds with hindsight - and took a very cautious approach.

My opening trade was a lay of South Africa at around 1.4. In fact, if I had just left that for the whole match I would have won more than I did by the time the game finished. My timing was somewhat off though I was keen to take some profits early as the weight of money was strongly against me despite a poor South African start. (It had moved 10 ticks or so against me before a ball was bowled pretty much!) Early South African wickets proved the key to the match though for me. Slow progress - caused by the loss of key early wickets - gradually saw New Zealand become favourites and for a large part of the innings, after the several early wickets, there was not too much movement in the prices and I ended up with a smallish all green at the change of innings. It was as if the market had decided the batting track was tough, New Zealand - under lights too - would find it equally as hard and whatever South Africa posted would be defendable.

This was the key issue for me. Eventually the South African total of 209 was perhaps better than had been expected earlier in the innings. Still shy of the 228 average 1st innings score at the ground. But how much of this was due to the wicket? And how much to an appalling start by South Africa that forced them into a conservative approach for much of the innings? It was a subject I discussed with some other traders - my view being the pitch, although not great, wasn't the sole factor in a score that was still unlikely to prove enough.

Consequently my early positions in the second innings were backs of New Zealand. An early wicket was a set back but from there a second innings stand of 154 effectively wrapped the match up for the Kiwis. I followed the price down but my stakes were moderate and my approach cautious until the odds were too low to really do much about. I could have lumped on the Black Caps near the end but that would have given me an unbalanced book with too much red on South Africa meaning two or three quick wickets would have left me in an even book situation. So I just took some moderate sized positions on short New Zealand prices and settled for a win of around £340. Happy with that.

Two tests going on at the moment which I'll write about in the entry for today at some point. In the meantime I've added some links to two new blogs. Hamish Writes is an interesting mix of politics, sports and financial trading while The Football Project appears to be a weekly tip blog which is showing a profit. Enjoy!

Cutting losses and running profits

This is one of the big ones. One of trading's 10 commandments as it were. And although it's going to be like teaching many readers to suck eggs it's an important trading tip so I thought I'd document it on the blog.

The tip really can be defined as simply as this... Cut your losses and let your wins run.

The concept behind it is simple. When trading we're pretty much trying to maximise our profits while protecting our bankroll and losing as little of it as possible in the process. Of course, the concept, and the reality of having the discipline to actually do it, are two totally different things. Especially on the taking a loss side of the equation. When in a losing position the temptation is always there to just "hang on" until things turn round, no matter how experienced a trader may be.

There's no need to take my word for all of this though. Let me use an example. One regarding legendary Wall Street trader Jesse Livermore that can be found in the excellent Reminiscences of a Stock Operator. In the book by Edwin Lefevre, Livermore goes under the name Larry Livingstone and, early in his career, has this to say after turning a multi million dollar fortune into comparitively nothing while trading commodities:

"It seems incredible that knowing the game as well as I did and with an experience of 12 or 14 years of speculating in stocks and commoditites I did precisely the wrong thing.

"The cotton showed me a loss and I kept it. The wheat showed me a profit and I sold it out. It was an utterly foolish play....

"Of all speculative blunders there are few greater than trying to average a losing game.... Always sell what shows you a loss and keep what shows you a profit. That was so obviously the wise thing to do and was so well known to me that even now I marvel at myself for doing the reverse."

I can't really improve on that. It sums it all up about as well as it can be summed up! It's dynamite advice and easily transferable to sports trading on betting exchanges such as Betfair.

So that's the concept sorted. What about the practicalities? How do we go about implementing this trading strategy? Well let's take a basic look at each part of the tip - cutting losses and letting wins run.

Cutting losses

This really is as straightforward as planning. When we open a position we should know where we are going to close it if the market moves against us. The point at which to set that bail out price is a whole different subject but how we arrive at it doesn't matter for now. The important thing is there should be a bail out point.

This means we should never lose more than a set amount on a trade. Which helps protect our bankroll and leaves us plenty of money to get involved again. Essentially it stops us just staring blankly at a screen as the market price simply runs away from us leaving us facing growing losses. It keeps us in the game. And in control. While at the same time preventing that awful feeling we've all no doubt had where the price is running against us and we're just hoping "something happens" to turn it around so we can get out for a smaller loss or even break even. As the Jesse Livermore example shows though, and as some of my recent results show, knowing all this and putting it in practice are two totally different things. Having the discipline to actually implement the stop loss can be the hardest thing to do.

Letting wins run

This is the nice part! But also has its difficulties. As the temptation to take a profit, any profit, can be large. Long term though we will make far more if we let our profits run. Imagine how much just 5 extra ticks in each completed trade (open and closed) would make to your own trading over 50 trades. Or 500. Or 5,000.

While letting our wins run we are, of course, also trying to protect the profit we've already made. Give as little of it back as possible as it were. One way of doing this is to implement a trailing stop loss. For example, say we've backed something at 1.8 and the price is now 1.6. We might say to ourselves if the price hits 1.7 we'll cut the position drifting against us and take the ten point profit we still have at 1.7. If the price continues to drop however, say to 1.5 we might move our trailing stop to 1.6. And so on.

There's really so much more that can be said and discussed on this subject of cutting losses and letting profits run but in a nutshell that's it. Naturally we should weigh up all the circumstances involving each market we enter when considering exactly how to implement everything. I certainly alter my strategies depending on market conditions. For example, in the recent Twenty20 World cup I was still happy to let wins run but was far more willing to take a quick profit when it was available than I am in, say and ODI or test match. This was simply because of the increased volatility. Of course I was still cutting losses as usual. I guess the point is this. The trading strategy is a winner. But as with all strategies we need to consider how best to implement them in the markets we are getting involved with.

---

Help yourself to free money

I'm not a fan of the free money threads on the Betfair forums as regular readers will know. But sometimes the betting exchange really does offer you free money and in this entry I'm going to outline how you can take advantage of it as a trading tip.

To be honest it's not the best trading tip to offer up. Bit of a cheat in fact. But as it happened twice the other day and I have screenshots of both examples I thought I'd blog about it while it is still fresh and relevant.

Sharp-eyed readers may have noticed that in the last week or so I have added a categories section to the right hand side bar. To keep up to date with all the tips I'll be publishing just click on the Trading Tips section there. At some point I'll also run through all my old blog entries and add any old entries that are relevant.

Help Yourself to Free Money

Ok. I've already said it's not the best tip. In fact it's snidey. Not as much as a trap bet. But all's fair in love and war. And besides, if someone is really so desperate to give their money away who says I can't take my share of it? I have in the past and I will continue to do so.

The tip is simple. And it is this........ Leave lays below the true market price.

Eh? I hear you asking after you've read that far for that piece of toss? Well bare with me. And take a look at this graph.... (click it for a larger image)


Anything stand out about this graph from the 1st test between India and Pakistan? Like the massive plunge in the draw price from the mid 2.1x range to 1.36?! What caused this? Well, it's simple. Someone or something (a rebellious bot?!) made a mistake. A bet was submitted to back the draw at a price at least as low as 1.36. For all we know it might have even been 1.01 but finally got fully filled at 1.36.

Now see the advantage of leaving a lay below the true market price? Yes. I've said it's snidey. But if people make mistakes I'm no saint. I'm going to take advantage. It's not as if people don't benefit from my stupid mistakes.

Call me fickle but I distinguish between this and a deliberate trap bet. In a trap bet the price might be 1.5 to lay and someone might ask 16 on the back side in a deliberate attempt to trick someone into laying them at stupid odds. Here there is no attempt to deceive. We're simply leaving a lay up and waiting for someone to make a mistake. And if they do we profit from it. They feel stupid. And learn from the mistake.

OK, I hear you say. But look at the sums involved. Peanuts were matched at the wrong prices. Well it is peanuts to some. But a profit is a profit. And much larger sums are matched during these mistakes too as this graph shows.... (click the graph for a larger image.)

Ok, this screenshot was taken immediately after the mistake so the price movements appear more spread out than if viewed in a longer time frame. That doesn't really matter though. The point is the New York Jets were playing the Dallas Cowboys. The Cowboys started at 1.1x and their price never got bigger. Yet someone has backed the Jets all the way down to 1.21. And this time it wasn't for peanuts. It took several thousand pounds to get the price that low. Nearly £4k was bet at evens alone. If you had layed that you could have immediately backed it back at 25+, or layed the Cowboys at 1.0x for a huge guaranteed profit. Leaving lays below the true market price suddenly seems a little more worthwhile now doesn't it?!

Alright I hear you ask. But how often do mistakes like this happen? Well, who knows. I guess you could use Betfair historical data to get a pretty good idea. But i'm happy to just know it works. As for these two examples? Well, they both happened last Thursday. I only looked in on a few markets. I wasn't looking for examples. They just cropped up while I was going about my normal trading business. Sure, to see two examples in a day in the 3 or 4 markets I looked in on might be a little unusual. But consider this - there are thousands of markets each day on Betfair.

The irony is most people don't even realise these mistakes are being made. Why not? Because they use the traditional Betfair interface. Their odds refresh every 30 seconds unless they refresh them manually. The action is all done and dusted before they realise it even happened. Fast refreshing trading software makes it all too clear what is going on though. To such an extent that even if you haven't left a lay in at below the true market value you can very often pick off these mistake bets before the person who made it realises what they've done and cancels it.

So there you have it. You can do worse than leave a lay at below the true market odds. It ain't pretty or cultured. It's taking full advantage of the mistakes of others. And it works. Just be careful. Afterall, you don't want to get caught yourself if you are too slow to cancel and something happens in the event you are trading to make your price value! Of course, there's nothing to stop you just leaving the lay up even below that level in the hope...

---

A losing weekend

Result since last update: £915.95

Well as losses go this one is right up there with some of the more annoying ones. Not angry with it at all - as I've said before losing is part of the game. You can't win all the time. But some losses are easier to take than others and this was certainly an irratating one. As ever I have only myself to blame though. And, as ever, i've taken the loss on the chin and put it behind me.

The £915 is made up of a few events that have either closed or I got involved with last night. All cricket or NFL markets. Some pretty good profits on some but the killer was last night's Philadelphia at New England NFL match.

Crazy really. I'd had some time off from trading as I mentioned yesterday and started doing the New Orleans at Carolina match early in the evening. Decided I wasn't really into it however so just levelled out all green during the first quarter and left it. Had something to eat, watched some tv and fell asleep on the couch. Woke up a bit later and felt like having another look. Emma's away so I got involved in the Patriots' game.

Well, won't bore you with all the details but ended up with a maximum market loss on the match odds market and a few hundred red on a handicap one. The handicap one really riled as I was offering pretty decent odds to try and get out for a profit but there just wasn't the liquidity at the time.

The match odds started off fine. Was just taking a few ticks here and there. Closed a few trades for losses too. Was genuinely surprised with the Eagles but never really doubted the Patriots would win - which they did. This was the route of the problem though. Although I closed out some positions for a loss I didn't close them all out. I remained steadfast in my belief the Patriots would win for too long. And although they did this was a mistake. It needed an incredible drift for me to hit my max loss point but as the game progressed and the scores remained pretty level a tough on pitch ruling against the Patriots got me there and i bailed. Real bite my lip stuff as I still believed they'd win. Max loss points are there for a reason though so I acted.

Of course, the Eagles immediately went 3 and out, the Patriots got the ball and scored. From memory I bailed just two ticks from the highest Patriots price. Galling stuff. But also avoidable if I'd approached the game differently and not held some of the earlier positions for as long.

So there you go. The irony is if I'd held the position 2 minutes longer I have had a nice win on the match odds market. Of course, the loss could have been that much more too mind. With hindsight I'm pleased I took the loss when I did. But not so happy with letting it run to a max loss situation. I just didn't believe the price would ever drift that far and took the decision that I was going to hold until it did. Genuinely just didn't think it would get there. And it's just an extra kick in the teeth that it just scraped it before plunging again when the Patriots got on their next drive.

Pretty hefty red booked then. Made a sizeable dent in my recent NFL results too. Not so much to trade over the next few days so will be adding some entries focussng on more general trading tips and pieces. Bit rich coming from a guy whose just blown the best part of a grand but feel free to have a read if you want!

Quick Sunday catch up

Not really got round to any trading over the last couple of days. Emma has been getting ready to head off an a two-week business trip so we've been spending some time together and family birthday celebrations have also kept me away from my computer.

The result is I greened out early in the first test between India and Pakistan and have barely touched it since. Shame really. Leaving my early positions would have been a lot more profitable but I wanted to be on the safe side and there's more to life than trading anyway.

Also missed today's ODI between South Africa and New Zealand. Looks like it was a thriller with victory coming on the last ball of the match! Usually a fair amount of proverbials done in close finishes like that so hope you had a good one if you got involved.

With Emma now safely tucked up in Shanghai I'll be putting a little more time into my trading over the next couple of weeks. Not sure about it yet but might give the pub a swerve and do some of tonight's NFL action instead. See how I feel in a bit. Back tomorrow with a proper blog entry either way.