Wednesday, April 08, 2009

Important cricket betting statistic

Tomorrow's ODI match between South Africa and Australia throws up one of the most standout stats in world cricket. If you're planning on betting on the match I'd suggest you hang back until you've read this article and considered the implications.

This is the kind of info I've been using profitably and swapping with other traders for years to help me with my own efforts at turning a profit. Obviously the information will not guarantee you, or me, a winner. But it should help inform our betting / trading on the match. And hopefully we can show a profit :-)

Put simply in day / night ODI games* at Capetown, where this match is being played, the team batting first has won 92% of the games since the turn of the century. (11 of 12) To put that in perspective in over 300 day night ODIs* around the world over the same timeframe the team batting first has won 55%.

In spread betting supremacy terms this equates to an average team batting first supremacy at the ground in the sample stats of 68.6 compared to an all match 11.5.

Now, of course historical stats can't guarantee what will happen in the future. Playing conditions tomorrow will have to be taken into account (the forecast is set fair). But stats like this can give a pretty good indication of what it likely to happen and I know for sure that I'd far rather go into this game knowing this information than not knowing it. It's a great example of showing the value of research in cricket betting.

A more detailed betting preview of the game, with more stats and discussion on betting on the match, can be found here:

South Africa v Australia 3rd ODI Preview

Good luck if you get involved!

* full completed day / night games between the 8 major cricketing nations.