Wednesday, September 06, 2017

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Wednesday, April 08, 2009

Important cricket betting statistic

Tomorrow's ODI match between South Africa and Australia throws up one of the most standout stats in world cricket. If you're planning on betting on the match I'd suggest you hang back until you've read this article and considered the implications.

This is the kind of info I've been using profitably and swapping with other traders for years to help me with my own efforts at turning a profit. Obviously the information will not guarantee you, or me, a winner. But it should help inform our betting / trading on the match. And hopefully we can show a profit :-)

Put simply in day / night ODI games* at Capetown, where this match is being played, the team batting first has won 92% of the games since the turn of the century. (11 of 12) To put that in perspective in over 300 day night ODIs* around the world over the same timeframe the team batting first has won 55%.

In spread betting supremacy terms this equates to an average team batting first supremacy at the ground in the sample stats of 68.6 compared to an all match 11.5.

Now, of course historical stats can't guarantee what will happen in the future. Playing conditions tomorrow will have to be taken into account (the forecast is set fair). But stats like this can give a pretty good indication of what it likely to happen and I know for sure that I'd far rather go into this game knowing this information than not knowing it. It's a great example of showing the value of research in cricket betting.

A more detailed betting preview of the game, with more stats and discussion on betting on the match, can be found here:

South Africa v Australia 3rd ODI Preview

Good luck if you get involved!

* full completed day / night games between the 8 major cricketing nations.

Saturday, March 21, 2009

Dyson blows Duckworth Lewis calculation

Off on an short trip to Spain in the morning but thought I'd say a few words about the Duckworth Lewis debacle in the first ODI between the West Indies and England before I leave for warmer climes.

I guess if you lost money on the match because of the farcical end then you're probably counting yourself more than a little unlucky though I'll have something to say about that later. First up though let's talk about the incident itself.

My immediate reaction is you just have to giggle. You can read about the
Dyson Duckworth Lewis Mistake there but essentially the West Indies' coach pulled his team off the pitch when they were offered bad light thinking they had won via the Duckworth Lewis method. Only to find out he had been reading the wrong line of a spread sheet - and they had, in fact, lost by one run. By which time it was too dark to go back out. Doh!

It brings back memories of Alan Ball desperately telling his Manchester City players to keep the ball shielded by a corner flag in the dying stages of an end of season game when the reality of the situation was they needed to score to prevent demotion. A howler. No more. No less.

That Dyson had made a mistake was immediately obvious by both the bemused but smiling England faces as they walked off the pitch looking at their own Duckworth Lewis sheet, as well as the excited tones of the Sky commentators who, realising they were on to a big story, revelled in the numbers being fed through by their "stats guys".

Fair play to Dyson who, after pointing suspiciously at his spreadsheet several times and storming off to see the match officials, finally realised he'd just made the mother of all balls ups. At which point he held his hands in the air and apologised to all and sundry insisting the mistake was entirely his responsibility. A refreshing attitude for sure. If not one likely to go down well in the West Indies' dressing room where tensions are already running high.

Anyway, it's not the first time Duckworth Lewis has caused
considerable embarrassment and probably won't be the last. But for the sake of the game it would be nice to think we can avoid these little errors going forward...

Speaking of mistakes a quick word on trading that match. I didn't get involved too deeply and by the time the farce unfurled I was sitting with a small four figure all green and just enjoying the cricket.

My point is really this though. I had levelled out. And was quite surprised to see so many people, particularly traders, posting on the Betfair forum claiming the mistake had cost them x amount of money. For several minutes, with both the light and rain closing in, the closeness of the Duckworth Lewis score and the impact wickets would have, staying involved in that market was madness. By that stage there was no real skill in whether people won or lost on trades being matched. It was a pure gamble. Hardly the environs of a trader looking for consistent profit.

I can maybe understand someone in an effectively all red position chasing a win. I don't agree with the strategy but I guess it's none of my business. What really suprised me though was people who had enough green on one side or another to secure a profit gambling 8 hours of trading away on what was essentially a punt. Of course, some came out of the situation all smiles while others, typically more vocal, bemoaned their bad luck.

I don't think it was bad luck. The odds were all over the place with flip flopping favourites. That's because it was a gamble. Both teams could win. If you had the chance to take a profit but chose the greed route instead on a 50/50 shot (literally at some points) and ended up losing then that's just probability coming home to roost. The method of losing the 50/50 shot is not important. The basic mathematical set up is.

The same can be said for those who had could have had all red books but decided to keep a small green on one side and large red on another. Suffering a sizeable loss here is just a consequence of preferring a gamble to cutting losses. Don't get me wrong. I'm not revelling in the losses of others. But when people start posting their positions on public forums and moaning about bad luck I'll often look at what they're saying and think about it.

In this instance I think it's fair comment that much of the damage was self inflicted and there's probably a lesson in there for all us traders. We will win sometimes and we all lose sometimes. Of course we do. Sometimes though it's too easy to blame unusual circumstances for losses when perhaps the truth is our own decision making at critical times was the real reason and an unusual event is just a convenient excuse.

I don't know, I guess cutting losses or guaranteeing a win in a highly volatile flip flopping market rather than trying to guess who wins and gambling a match worth of trading away in a couple of minutes is just more my personal style. Bemoaning bad luck in these circumstances is a little baffling though.

Anyway, I've probably banged on about that for long enough. No offence intended to anyone who lost. Just my views on it. One last thing before I turn the computer off - Mark Iverson.

I'm sure anyone who is / was a regular reader of his blog has seen that he has decided to finish it and has made a
goodbye post. A big shame as the blog was one of the best out there - thoughtful, insightful and well written. If you've not visited his blog for a while though and you've enjoyed his thoughts as much as I have over the years now's your chance to say so and wish him luck with the future.

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Friday, March 13, 2009

New Zealand v India 5th ODI

Just a quick one as I'm off out soon for drinks and dinner before an early night to get some kip in before the 5th and final ODI between New Zealand and India later.

If you're interested in the match at all there is a
betting preview on CricketEdge. It's pretty long but well worth a read. Food for thought anyway. I agree with much of it. There's a betting preview posted on most televised matches on that site if you like it and want some ideas for future matches.

There's also a tip for
Dhoni to top bat. If you're looking for a cast iron winner I'd avoid it but I can't really argue that the price is probably a bit of value if you're taking the long term view.

Anyway, hope you find the articles useful. Any comments or feedback would be welcome. Just to make it clear, although I did not write those two articles, I have written some for that site it so have a vested interested of sorts.

It also means any feedback will get passed on to the guys writing the previews so if there's anything else you'd like to see in them going forward just leave a comment below.


Sunday, March 08, 2009

Baby, CricketEdge and Premium Charge

I realise no posts since last June makes me a poor excuse for a blogger so apologies for that. I've explained why I've been away on the various forums when people ask but basically so much has been happening I just haven't had the time. Like I said - a poor excuse!

So what has been going on? Well first up the big news is we're having a baby! We're both chuffed to bits and looking forward to the big day sometime in late June / early July. All a bit overwhelming really and it means i've finally had to sort all the DIY around the house out. I can safely say I hope I never have to rip floorboards up again. Exciting times though and we're busy choosing all kinds of baby stuff and getting the nursery ready. Can't wait. :-)

What else? Well in my last blog entry I said I was going to write a whole load of cricket trading articles. I have. Though after I wrote that entry I was contacted by some other cricket traders and asked if I would consider joining them in setting up a new cricket news and betting website. I agreed. The site is called
CricketEdge and it's recently gone live.

Helping out with that site has taken up quite a bit of time and effort. There's a fair amount of content on it now with a whole lot more waiting in the wings, including the series of trading articles I've written, so hopefully they'll be up soon. In the mean time there's some pretty useful, if basic, articles on cricket betting among loads of other stuff that you may find interesting.

The idea is to build a community of cricket fans and punters / traders and a forum will be added soon to enable the discussion. Involved as I am I'm biased I know but the guys behind it are a good laugh, know their cricket betting and I hope the site succeeds. Hell, we may even make some money out of it!

Talking of money that brings me to trading. Yes, I am still very involved in the cricket markets. More so than ever in fact. Of course, the big news since my last post has been the introduction of the Premium Charge over at Betfair. There, I managed to say it without swearing.

In that last post I mentioned I was moving much of my betting activity away from Betfair in as much as it enabled me to capitalise on the knowledge I built up on each match by using markets available at bookmakers as well as spread firms. Basically allowing me to maximise my profit from the knowledge and views I had on a game.

This has helped me offset the impact of the premium charge a little but I've still had to alter my approach pretty drastically to cut down on the amount of charge I'm paying. On the whole this has involved me racking up substantial losses on Betfair when needed while holding an opposite position elsewhere. Extra effort for me, a pain in the butt but also what Betfair wants as it means more money stays in the Betfair pool for longer.

I must admit it's a strange feeling to sometimes set out in a market to deliberatley lose money in it, or trade it as normal and then transfer the green elsewhere, but I suppose it's better than not being able to use the exchange at all. Still sucks though, as our American cousins might say.

So that's that. I'm still around, still trading and am looking forward to having a junior BFT to dote on soon.

I will be updating my blog every now and then going forward for anyone who is still remotely interested in my ramblings. I guess after such a miserable effort to do so after last time I won't say anything more than just as and when I have something interesting to say - and the time to say it in. In the meantime good luck with your betting! :-)

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Wednesday, June 04, 2008

Hello world (again). Anyone out there?

Err, yeah. So I've been away. Bit longer than planned as it happens. Ok. Much longer then. So sorry about that. I'd planned a short break but with so many other things going on guess i just got lazy about restarting it all. Nice to see some Betfair forum diehards hassling me every now and then to start up again though. Thanks for the support and for better or worse here I am. Blogging again. I don't know, I must be mad. And as for you reading my ramblings.... ;-)

One of the interesting things about stopping was seeing all the theories as to why I had. I'm sure I said I was going to and explained why before I did. And I did try to answer the question on various Betfair Forum threads several times. Some of the explanations I came across were that I was a Betfair plant, had done my bank and nads in or had just made the whole thing up. While one cheeky fecker decided I had succombed to early marital pressures and was under my new wife Emma's thumb and unable to trade! (Cheers for that one pj!) Well, all are wrong :-) Truth is I'm still trading. More than ever in fact.

So some of the questions I've been asked the most via email / MSN over the last few months...

Will you be starting the blog up again?

Yes! From now. But it will be different. I got bored of the daily grind of talking about how much I'd won or lost and why. At first it seemed an interesting thing to do. And it was a nice way of keeping up to date with how much I'd saved for my wedding.

Once the wedding and honeymoon was sorted I kind of lost interest though. Tried a new challenge to turn the £1k into £100k but again that just meant I ended up droning on about how much I'd won or lost even more. It just got a bit dull to write to be honest. I much preferred discussing the various trading ideas / techniques / theories that we all use. So that's what I intend to do going forward. Not as many updates. But hopefully ones that are of more interest. Or more interesting for me to write anyway. Sure I'll discuss some wins and losses if there is something worth chatting about. But just not every day with a running tally.

How's the trading going? Done your bank or made the £100k?

It's going well thanks :-) Though no, I haven't turned the £1k into £100k. With a little luck maybe I'll get to mention that one day soon. :-) I have been trading a lot though. And although I will shy from mentioning figures as much as in the past I'll post up last month's results to give an idea of how I've been doing recently. Partly to show I didn't do my bollocks in. And also because it was my best month to date on Betfair and I was bloody pleased with it!

That said it hasn't all been plain sailing. A couple of months ago I had my first losing month on Betfair since starting the blog in May 2006. It wasn't a big loss and I was not all doom and gloom about it. Disappointed yes but it was still a profitable month. Only though because my attentions are increasingly focussed on other betting and trading opportunities in conjunction with Betfair. I still use Betfair the most but since the wedding have increasingly used bookmakers and spread firms to try to maximise any profit available from my reading of the various in running situations I come across in the events I trade. Can't think why I hadn't explored this properly before as it can add a fair bit to the bottom line so a big thankyou to the people who've pointed me in the right direction in doing this. You know who you are!

Can you tell me how to make money on Betfair?

I don't think I'd be exaggerating if I said I've had thousands of emails asking this since starting the blog. I used to try to reply to them all but just couldn't keep up in the end. Basically I don't have an easy step by step guide and anyway there are people out there who are far smarter traders than me who make a lot more money than I ever will. I guess I just found some ideas that work for me and overtime if you look hard enough maybe you will too. I've discussed a lot of my ideas and strategies on the blog in the past and will do so going forward so perhaps that might be a place to start.

So what else? Well the the betting blogosphere seems to have changed a lot since I stopped. Many blogs appear to have died a death while John's over at The Gambler has turned into an enjoyable read about all things life rather than gambling. Especially pleased to see Mark Iverson is still going strong and that Matt over at Punt has managed at least the odd update! Just hope Ray over at The Sports Trader gets the bug again someday soon. Anyway, guess I'll get round to updating the links to them all sometime soon. If you have a gambling blog and want a link just let me know and I'll add one when I change them.

Right, that's it for now. Rambled on a bit longer than expected there but hope it answered some questions. I'll be busy trading the Trent Bridge test match over the next few days but hopefully will get round to updating again sometime soon. See you then hopefully!

Monday, December 31, 2007

Happy New Year

Result since last update: £2342.98

Well that's a bit surprising! Mainly because I didn't really get too involved in anything between Christmas and New Year. Did a lot a eating, drinking and family stuff so missed the start and end of the two test matches, traded a set or two of darts and a a single quarter of an NFL match. Looking at the result maybe I should take this less hands on approach into the New Year!

Obviously pleased the results. Nice bit of unexpected green to add to December's results. My most successful market was the first test between South Africa and West Indies. Only caught a few sessions really but there were some absolutely staggering prices available. Knowing I was unable to do much of the match, including the scheduled end, I just kept my liabilities limited and my position in such a way that I could leave it at any moment. I know I discussed the price on the 3rd night / start of the 4th day with some people on MSN but I'm aware it still smacks a little of aftertiming to say the the price on South Africa seemed sheer lunacy. From memory everyone and their dog on the Betfair cricket forum was of a similar view so I'm sure some very nice wins were landed. As it is I couldn't do the start of the 4th day so just left my book in an all green position with some weighting towards the West Indies. Was able to look in later in the day but by then the West Indies were 1.2x and I'd missed all the real action. Still, there's more to life than trading and despite the missed opportunity I'm more than happy with the result.

Anyway, I'll tot it all up another time but from a quick look through my results I'm staggered. It appears I've made over £45k profit this year - while still trading with a £1k bank for the first few months. Tell you something now - if you'd offered me that kind of result at the start of the year when I was still saving for my wedding I'd have wripped your hand, elbow and arm clean off!

Anyway, off to celebrate the new year now. Hope you and yours have a great one tonight and 2008 is a winning year for you. Happy New Year!

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