Total profit since wedding: £21,942.42
Total that was saved for wedding: £33,275.41
Total Profit since blog started: £55,217.83
Previous months:
November: £4313.05
October: £4641.39
September: £7817.71
August: £715.56 (Married at last!)
July: £4567.18
June: £4113.44
May: £4802.19
April: £5465.97
March: £2034.69
February: £1116.5
January: £530.17
December: £1212.12
November 2006: £39.91
October 2006: £1359.32
September 2006: £926.11
August 2006: £2360.94
July 2006: £735.48
June 2006: £2243.03
May 2006: £1052.8
This is where I'll be posting the results of my trading and keeping a running tally of how much I've saved towards my wedding.
Above is the total amount saved. Below are monthly screen shots from Betfair showing my progress. Just click each image for a larger picture. I started in May 2006 with £1,000. Details of my money management are here.
May 2006 results screenshot
June 2006 results screenshot
July 2006 results screenshot
August 2006 results screenshot
September 2006 results screenshot
17 comments:
Hello
Came across your blog and really enjoyed the idea... but I do have one question, I don't find almost any info on your money management, by other words, what is your cake size and how much (the maximum) of it do you expose in a particular position?
Hi VNJ,
A lot of people are asking me similar questions via email. I have mentioned all the issues you raise in various posts but will pull it all together in one post which I'll put up in the next day or so as I do have very strict rules on how I'm operating for this blog.
Thanks for reading.
Looks like you're doing very well - keep at it! - how about a betfair stag-do get together so that all us nutters can get together in one place and celebrate the success of your project?!
PJ (trader PJ)
Hi PJ> Thanks for the encouragement! As for the stag thing - well stranger things have happened! I've met a fair few people from Betfair before. Always a laugh!
By the way. Anyone interested in the answer to VNJs question I discussed it all in this post
First time i read your blog BF trader...very impressive mate...keep up the good work and all the best for the future...both your punting and of course the wedding.
Bigjoe.
Hey Big Man, thanks for the post and kind words. Sorry to hear about your ban on the forum. Seemed a bit harsh to me but at lease you now have have Eric Bristow no less to keep you company as you while away the hours.
Um. I suppose I should come clean. As it's the first time you've read the blog you probably don't realise you've featured in it yourself before! Must have been kicking yourself after that prediction!!
Excuse me while I pat myself on the back. I haven't had a bet for three months now and it feels great. I gave up because I suddenly saw the light. In fact, I'd seen it many times in my past but refused to admit I had. Perhaps my age (57) has given me the wisdom to accept things that those younger and more headstrong cannot.
No matter what anybody tells you, you CANNOT make money betting over any decent length of time unless A) The odds you are betting at do not reflect the true chances of the outcome or B) There is a bent heat and you are in on it.
I sadly laboured under the misapprehension for many, many years that you could gain an edge for yourself and actually make money betting (or trading for that matter).......It can't be done.
The reason for this is very obvious to me now. It's all about mathematics.
If you were able, as the bookmakers do, to bet to a nice 10% overround, then sure, you'd make 10% on turnover over a year's business. If you were able to pay out 35/1 on a 36/1 shot non-stop as a casino does on a roulette table, you'd finish way in front after a year. If you were a betting exchange, taking a small cut off every winning bet you handled, then sure, you'd be millions ahead annually, but us punters are none of those things and the money to fund the above three examples of outfits that exploit the need to gamble that is inside so many has to come from somewhere. Deep down, we all know it's us.
Admittedly, some punters are smarter than others but sorry, no matter which criteria you bet by, the law of mathematics will finally grind you down. The horror run that kills your system will eventually arrive and clean you out. The sending-off, the penalty miss, the fluke goal, all the things that throw form out of the window......all will be regular visitors to the football punter's table.
Only mugs bet with bookmakers (unless they are arbing perhaps), and the 'shrewd' now ply their trade at the exchanges. The odds are better but the bottom line is that you are betting to a 100% book, which, as it is formed by the weight of money from a massive amount of people, who are all mostly clued up, will ALWAYS be correct to within a thousandth of a point......especially as the 'Bot v Bot' equation also has to be taken into account in this area. The very best you can do is finish level after 5,000 bets but then there is the commission...... that will make sure you ALL finish in the red, no matter how deep a knowledge you may have of the game. It's so odd how punters accept you can't win on a fruit machine because of the built in payout of only 80% but won't admit that the law of mathematics also applies to football betting on exchanges.
I have to smile when I read betting forums where there are people there saying just how much they make a month with their punting. Yeah, in their dreams maybe!....I was once one of those clowns so I shouldn't really say too much on the subject.
Betfair published a report a few years ago (when it wasn't half as tight oddswise as it is now) in which they stated that 0.71% of their clients had made profit over the previous year. They were probably arbers in my opinion anyway. I would imagine it's now dropped to around 0.00% these days.
Sorry, it really is a MUG'S GAME and I for one am a better person for admitting it and getting out. I suggest that you consider doing yourself a favour and try to do likewise.....you will have a very thankful family straight away I promise you. The thing is, gambling is a terrible addiction that hurts not only you, but those close to you too. Deal with it as quickly as you can. This post will have been worthwhile if it helps just ONE person see the light as I have.
Good Luck.
Thankyou for taking the time to post. Very thoughtful and I'm pleased you have managed to quit something that was harming your quality of life. Your advice is now there for others to take to heart if they wish.
While I have no problems with your view - and have seen how completely destructive a gambling addiction can be while younger and spending some time in a hostel in Las Vegas - I feel obligated to say that although I have no axe to grind against your opinion in general I believe you have directed many of your comments at me without actually taking time to read the blog that I write.
If you had you would know that I readily accept I've never found a way to make consistent profits on football betting. So I don't bet on it. I've said often I feel I was perhaps the only person on Betfair who didn't place a bet on the world cup!
You would also know that I definitely do not rely on a "system"!! And I trade and not bet. (Ok, so you can argue trading is betting of course but my point is I don't place a bet and let it run to the outcome of an event. I'm sure others would have something to say about the long term profitability of punting but I don't do it so don't know and won't comment) Also, You'd know I only trade in running where scenario A) you discuss (about value) is much easier to find. Having said that if I have a position I'll hapily get out giving poor value in certain circumstances.
Reading the blog it should also be very clear that this is a hobby. I don't rely on the income. I started with £1,000. Money that I am prepared to and can well afford to lose. I also have a strict money management policy which insures I can never lose more than a small percentage of any *profits* made. (about 5.5% at time of writing) I generate a proper income from my own business that I have run for nearly 5 years. So my hobby is more a challenge. I used to play a lot of chess. I look at trading as a similar cerebral challenge but with financial reward as well as with the sense of a mental achievement if I win.
If I may I'd also like to correct you on a few points. Your assertation that a bookmaker operating a book to 110% overround means they make 10% profit is a little simplistic (just ask one!) Also, the figure you state for the % of winners on Betfair was not a figure for % of users who make a profit per annum, but a % of users who make more than £15k per annum. A big difference.
I agree with your points about arbing. In the past I have arbed football coupons very seriously with a large bank and made good money from it. But it wasn't easy money and involved a lot of running around shops as well as stress because of the sums involved.
Finally I'd like to ask you to think about something. More rhetorical than in need of a reply. Do you have a pension? Or perhaps own some unit trusts? Perhaps wrapped in an ISA? The question is how do you think these work? Ultimately there's a guy at the top trading with your money. Gathering information, making informed decisions on which way the markets will move and acting accordingly. Is he destined to always fail because of "the law of mathematics"? And if so why are you investing with him? Because isn't he doing what a good sports trader is doing? Making informed decisions on which way the market will move and acting accordingly?
Don't get me wrong. You make some very valid points about the dangers of and addictive qualities of gambling. It can be truly destructive and I have seen that with my own eyes. It was not pleasant. But it is truly destructive on a small minority of the total betting population. Far more bet for small stakes for a bit of fun, even excitement, and can afford to lose what they stake - be it on the lottery, grand national or the big weekend match.
For anyone wishing to take things further I only hope they have the knowledge, patience, time and discipline to properly research their chosen field and strictly operate within a set of well thought out trading rules - much like I hope the guy running my pension fund does. Unfortunatley, I believe most don't.
Very interesting that as I read the first part of this post (the gamblers part), I was mentally forming a viewpoint that you basically replied with. I am sick and fed up of the knockers, I used to read the 'general betting' section of the BF forum. However, I avoid it now, I have never known such a collection of self hatred and negativity. 'It can't be done' etc. Threads within live matches ending in arguments about who was right and wrong. Since I stopped reading it so much (I still read it to pick up useful info but avoid the 'chat'), I have improved my results, having not been swayed by negativity and arrogance.
So many people say that money cannot be made on BF, how on Gods green earth can 0.00% of people make money on BF???? How does that work mathematically? Of course, very few people make good money on BF but human nature dictates that very few people can be arsed to actually work hard at it. A friend of mine gave a tip to another mate about a horse he had good reason to know something about. 'Go easy, it's just a chance....', a couple of grand later, an angry phone call and it was all round that group of friends that BF is a complete waste of time and extremely dangerous too. Nothing comes for free and BF is no different.
Apologies for the rant but I am so fed up of posts like that.
Shambolic
Just want to leave a quick coment.
I've already been in Investment Banking and there is zero difference between the way I used to manage the funds there and the way I manage the funds in befair, if anything the risk and money management is tighter now.
Yes, its a dangerous world but then again so is living.
I feel I must post, the guy slagging gambling has no knowledge of betfair and is obviously just a bitter loser ;-)
I do agree that there are very few winners, but the ones that do win a lot, through their research and work effort.
Nobody said it was easy and people need money management and should only bet with money they can afford to lose.
I suppose pubs should be closed ? and what about cinemas, those films can fleece people out of their hard earned money and for what ? Enjoyment which is what gambling should be about :-p
Its the hope that keeps us going!!
Hi there-It's Mully here at Placepotters United.
I've linked you back. Keep up the good work.
Amazing to read your Blog and it is fast becoming a vital part of my daily routine. It is so refreshing to read someone passionately, and intelligently talking about something like this. All the best
Hi,
Find your site interesting, you have an easy to read style.
I've just cast my eye over your trading figures. I presume you are not doing this full time. What are your thoughts on the merits of just making value bets rather than trading in and out the way you do?
I started around the same time as you, and was down to my last £500 or so in May. Was actually doing a f/t job at the time, but an unexpected winning run convinced me to give up work and just follow cricket full time. Have had about 4-5 losing streaks of £5-6k, but still managing £5k average profit per month. I basically just take a position I consider to be value against the expected result in the game and only unload the bet if I think the exit bet is one I would make had I not made the original bet. In fact, the few times I have traded to limit a loss or guarantee a profit I have an abysmal knack of picking just the wrong moment to do so. It also seems a very high maintenence way of betting.
I suppose my question is this:
do you think that your style of trading will make you the greatest profit in the long run, or do you believe you could do better from more selective and targeted wagers based more around the form of the teams?
PS. As opposed to Mr Micawber,I am hourly expecting my luck to desert me.
No, I don't do it full time. I explain a bit about myself and my work in this post and have also written about why I haven't gone full time on Betfair elsewhere too. (See the comments section.)
Your post makes for interesting discussion. Of course, taking value bets as it sounds like you do will prove profitable if you do it for long enough. And this is something I'm always on the look out for when I take positions out. But the way I'm trading at the moment is also coloured by why I'm trading and keeping the blog.
Basically I just want to save enough to get married. And when I set out I decided the way I wanted to do this was to make steady progress to a total rather than have any profit subject to too large swings. Basically I'm not prepared to go on losing runs of £5/6k as you are. (Or the equivalent for my bank) But would rather just bank some money at the end of each week / month and know I'm a step nearer my target without having to worry about big losing runs and wondering if I'll get the money back. For someone with a longer term outlook I guess the value option as I believe you mean is a good approach and, as you indicate, not as high maintenance. But for me a more high maintenance approach is acceptable at the moment. I don't mind putting in the extra effort when I decide to trade (and remember it is only part-time) if the pay off is a smoother profit line. It just helps me budget easier. I discussed some other issues around this in this post about trading strategy.
Funnily enough at the time, although I had started changing my trading style to more like one you describe, the results were as expected with a lower maintenance approach if a trend line was added. Though there wasn't really enough data to draw a considered conclusion. (And the approach was still more high maintenance than I think you mean.)
I don't know. I guess ultimately a 10/1 shot might be value but will only win one in 10 times even if the true price is 9/1. Long term that's fine but with the shorter time period I have I just prefer less variance and banking safer, if smaller and more consistent, profits. Don't know if that answers your question. If not I'm hoping to answer another question (from James A) in the comment section on this post later today which might.
Hi, I read your articles time to time and it is a good reading. I would like to ask you if you have some spare time to try my program I wrote for betfair trading. I would like to hear an opinion from someone who has such experiences as you. Please, forgive me beforehand as my comment has nothing to do with your article but I could not find any contact to you. If you are interested, my email is: StefanBelopotocan@hotmail.com
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