Sunday, November 12, 2006

Betfair betting blogs

Didn't get around to trading at all at the weekend. Seemed to spend most my time out of the house either shopping, eating or drinking. Missed the end of the WTA Championship from Madrid as a result but intend to try and make the most of this week's ATP finale from Shanghai. Got a lot of work on at the moment but am hoping to catch at least the singles matches each day to help keep the wedding funds ticking over.

Anyway, I've added some new links in the blogs section on the right so thought I'd do a quick round up of some kindred bloggers who keep Betfair blogs. A lot seem to spring up for a few weeks before dying a death - no doubt due to a losing run or the blogger finding better things to do with their time than us long-suffering saddos!

But there are some that seem to be updated regularly. The Gambler is a year in the life of a guy called John who likes his beers as much as his sport and trading. A man after my own heart he's 11 months into his year long diary and it's a good read with some interesting discussion. I for one am hoping he keeps it going into the new year.

Phil over at the Smiling Assassin has been going a while too. A man of many aliases (smiling, silent, relaxed, happy, well-paid assassin etc) there's some discussion on his wins and losses as well as lots of screenshots as visual aids to help explain everything.

More of a tipping blog than a Betfair trading one, but one I like to read anyway, is Kicking Bets written by a guy called Chris. Been going for a nearly a year. Can't find the latest results but I think he's showing a 40 something or other per cent ROI. Perhaps not the biggest from a trading perspective but I think you'll be hard pressed to find an out and out tipster with better results.

Another well worth dropping in on is One Percent a Day. There's a lot of guys who aim to simply make 1% of their bank on Betfair each day and this guy is one who keeps a blog and explains what he's been up to as well as keeping a results section. You'd be surprised how quickly your profits will grow if you can consistently grow your bank at 1% a day!! The Diary of a Football Fanatic is also an interesting read. Some thoughtful discussion as well as an ongoing trial of several football betting systems - complete with explanations, profit and loss.

So, to the new blogs. He's just changed his blogging software but David over at Wizardgold Betfair Trader seems to be the oldest of the Betfair blogs. A regularly updated review of his betting the blog also features podcasts and videocasts as well as the occasional Betfair API software review. All interesting stuff.

And one to really turn up the heat in time for the Ashes is the Anger Therapy blog. Got an email from this guy, read his blog and it's pretty clear he's an Aussie and doesn't rate the "Pom's" chances Down Under too much this winter! I've got a feeling he's the same Anger Therapy who started the infamous "New Market: Can the Poms avoid an innings defeat?" thread on the Betfair cricket forum. Although that Anger Therapy appears to have changed his forum name to La Puta it's still the longest running thread on the cricket forum. Kept alive by those who appreciate the irony of the thread title when compared to the splendid result of the last Ashes series! Still, after England's recent dismal performance against the Aussie Prime Minister's XI maybe Anger Therapy / La Puta will have the last laugh!!

Finally Damian over at D is for Discipline seems to have risen from the dead with a new look blog so I'll be keeping my eye on that too.

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Anonymous said...

Hi, Im fairly new to betfair and happend to come across your enlightning blog...your game plan seems very similar to myself. I work full time and try and do my bit on the week ends and seem to be doing ok...may be ill pay for my skiing hols in Jan! My question is would you ever think about ditching your current job to become a full time trader? I did a months fantasy trading, writting down possitions I would have taken and at what price and the P/L I would have made etc. This seemed to go well and have been trading for real the past 2 weeks and seems to be following the same pattern. with the money you make during just the odd hours you manage to trade, do you ever think about the potential income you could generate from trading full time? Id be interested in your thoughts...


The Betfair Trader said...

Hi John,

Thanks for your comment and question. The simple answer is yes! I do think about the potential profits I could make if I traded full time. And the grass does often seem greener... However, I also think about the increased stress that relying on winning would bring. My trading would change from an enjoyable pastime to a make or break activity each day. I wonder if I could maintain my discipline after a few losing days or if I'd start to chase knowing that I needed to win to pay the mortgage. And bills. Buy new tyres for the car. Get a new kitchen etc. I also realise that if I went full time I would have to play for larger stakes - and this would require at least some new trading approaches and techniques that I've yet to trial. So at this stage although confident I don't actually know if I'd make it.

In addition I like my life as it is. I'm self employed, work from home, still write the odd freelance article by mainly just run my own gambling related business. Have done for nearly 5 years. Basically I have a good quality of life. Work that I enjoy that I can do more or less when I want. So it's not as if I'd be giving up a job I can't stand. I've already sorted myself in that way so don't have that motivation to make the switch. Plus my business is going well and I'd have to turnover a lot more on Betfair at my current rate of return to make up for the shortfall if I gave it up.

I know a lot of people on the Betfair forums almost crave the title of "full timer" and "pro" but I don't. Of course I'd like to be more profitable. And would most definitely appreciate the large sums I'm aware some make. But for the time being at least if I did try to up my profits it would be through a gentle raising of stakes rather than spending more hours doing it. Once I've (hopefully) got most the wedding paid for I think this will be my approach.

In the back of my mind there's also the nagging questions of the future of exchanges, online betting, taxation of winnings etc. And while it may seem a no-brainer to make hay while the sun shines - and I do admire some of those who are - I decided many years ago that I was never going to rely on a single income stream again. So I'm happy to spread my time around and pull in money from several different sources.

If anyone is considering going full time I'd urge caution. Even trading part-time can get a little boring. Full time could get very boring - with the associated risks - despite the seemingly glamorous title. If I was to make the switch I'd also want to know that I had a good reserve of cash to live on to remove any stress from having to make a profit. And I'd want a long period of consistent winning behind me to feel confident.

Of course, there's then always the need to constantly review what you do. Markets evolve, punters get shrewder. What works one day may stop working the next - and then where are you left? Anyone who's been around on Betfair long enough will remember The Story of Ster and many similar ones. It's well worth heeding the lesson. And it's not just something that happens to others. I've noticed it myself. You have to adapt to survive. Some Specials markets (I'm thinking earlier Big Brother ones) used to be so easy to make money on. But over the years things change. Edges disappear. Punters get smarter. Even with the ridiculous cash cow that was Big Brother it's now not just a case of turning the computer on and waiting for pay day.

OnePercent said...

Thanks for the mention - it's good to know someone is reading my own little blog.. I'll try to update it a bit more regularly in future!
One question for you - how much do you thinkl your wedding is going to cost? You've already got nearly £10k saved up, how much more do you think you need? Scary thoughts indeed as I rapidly approach 30, with a hint-dropping girlfriend in tow. Maybe I need to alter my blog title to "50 Percent a Day"... :o|

The Betfair Trader said...

No worries 1%. Like the idea of it. With that kind of daily goal I'd imagine your win rate would be a lot higher than mine even though I limit my risk.

As for the cost of the wedding. All the wedding magazines (believe me you'll get to know them all if you pop the question!) say the average wedding is around £18k these days inc honeymoon. They can be done a lot cheaper or for considerably more. We just decided what we wanted, priced it up and it came in around the average. We both have good incomes and were saving for it anyway. When I started the blog I'd have been happy to raise just half the cost. Am hopeful now, fingers crossed, I might be able to cover the whole lot. :-)

Anonymous said...

Tired,happy,lost,broke,tall.small,wealthy, but alwayz Smiling
The Assassin Thanks You

Anonymous said...

Do you wan't to exchange the links? Answer me here , please:

Apuestas said...

no more updates?