Monday, November 13, 2006

When it rains it pours

Daily Result: £296.97

Hmmm. Nowhere near the most I'm prepared to lose on a single event but even spread across two separate events dropping nearly £300 is still a pretty hefty loss. However, strange as it may sound, I'm not particularly worked up about the loss. Annoyed yes but having looked through what I did today there's no real standout errors (perhaps one minor one) that I regret making. It was just one of those days that you have to deal with from time to time where a period of trading just goes horribly wrong in just about everyway it can. And then some. I like to think the trick in these circumstances is to keep control, limit the losses and not do you bollocks in. And believe it or not, at just under a £300 daily loss I think I managed it.

I got involved in two matches from the Shanghai Masters. Nadal v Blake and Davydenko v Robredo. At one stage I was £222 red the pair in the first game and £334 red the pair in the second. So from those dreadful positions a £296.97 loss on the day suddenly doesn't seem quite so bad!

I'm not going to run through each game in detail. Suffice to say I was over £200 red the pair in each match within 4/5 games. The start of each match was just awful for me. I plotted a rough price / time graph for the start of the first game. Looking at it my entry trades were at prices I was mostly happy with in situations I was mostly happy with. The problem was the exit trades. Basically a string of points would go against me and I'll bail for a loss just in time to save what I expected to be a far bigger loss. Only for a string of points to go the other way leaving my bail price looking awful. In fact, when looking at a graph I more or less caught the worst prices to bail at more than once! With hindsight it looked like the perfect example of how not to trade!!

Anyway, I accept that just as some days everything will seem to go right for you other days you'll be reminded that it never rains but pours. I used to play a lot of poker and am familiar with the concept of variance. Not especially applicable here but still worth having a think about - especially in terms of how to deal with it. I did an entry about trading psychology a while back and when I have a bad losing day I like to have a read back through it and get that Tao of Poker book I mentioned in it off the shelf which I'll be doing tonight.

So, not a great day. Especially as the irony of it all is I fancied both the winners to win. And with Blake that was a big odds against shout. But there have been losses, both bigger and smaller, that I've been more worked up about simply because I know I made mistakes or silly errors. I don't feel I did anything too wrong today but instead was more a victim of some unsual circumstances that are bound to crop up from time to time. I know it'll happen again - hopefully not too soon! - and I hope I again manage to stay disciplined when it does.

Have a long standing appointment tomorrow afternoon so will probably miss the Ljubicic v Nalbandian game which is the one I really want to have a go at. Will probably also give the first game up the Federer v Roddick one, a miss unless the ARod gets off to a good start.

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4 comments:

Anonymous said...

Lol, I made the same bollocks on the Dav v Rob tennis match. I put it down to being just one of those games that you find every now and again where it just won't settle into any sort of pattern. My biggest mistake at the moment is not becoming aware quick enough that some events are just to be left alone, I think this was one of them. I was very pro Dav and thats the original position I took and was £70 odd green after about 5 mins from the start. But then it all went wrong. Ah well, as you mentioned, I felt no emotion about it at all, it was just one of those events, but I hope it reinforces the sense to see a difficult event like it again. Early on...

Best of luck :-)

Anonymous said...

BTW, do you use any particular software to plot graphs of the price against time? I think reviewing my performance in that manner may be of great help to me. I know of one program but I wondered what you use

The Betfair Trader said...

It had crossed my mind too that the Davydenko game was one to just leave once it had got going. It's something I often do. Infact I did have a break on this game but always knew I'd return later to try to reduce some of the red. What didn't help was the standard of tennis was pretty crap for a lot of what I saw. Commentator comments included "shocking", they're playing like "bums" and "What is going on here?" It was one of those matches I just wished I'd never started with!

As for the price / time software I have none. Just did a rough sketch too try and see exactly what had gone on and where I'd screwed up.

If you could point me in the direction of any such software I'd be grateful.

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