Biggest tennis trading loss

Daily Result: £577.8

Feck it! And then feck it some more!! So I suffered my first maximum loss today. The market I screwed up on was Stepanek v Bjorkman. And you could say I'm not best pleased! But, strange as it may sound, although I'm obviously very disappointed with the end result I'm not actually that annoyed with my trading performance. That's not to say I didn't make mistakes - I've just made worse in the past and there were some positives to draw from it too. Let me explain...

Having thought on it overnight (writing this next morning) and with the benefit of looking what happened with fresh eyes it's pretty clear this isn't the worst match I've traded in terms of what I actually did. Sure, I've identified three mistakes whch I'll discuss below, but ultimately much of the loss boils down to the simple fact that I had to close off a large number of positions for a loss. Just seemed like one of those games where everytime I touched it the market moved against me and I had to take another loss. Add all the positions up and the losses mount. Just as if you add all those winning trades up the winnings grow. That said, if I hadn't made any of the three mistakes the losses would have been smaller.

Mistake 1 - Not quitting the match earlier
I enjoy trading. A lot. But this game was not fun. Ended up trading it because I had to rather than because I wanted to. And that is not a situation I like. I was never all green during the match and wanted out of it from the first rain break. Instead I spent the best part of seven hours watching the game and waiting for it to restart during rain breaks. Might sound ridiculous but I was knackered by the end of it. Couldn't believe Stepanek prolonged my misery by missing match point in the 4th before condemning me to sit through another set!!

My red was up and down throughout the match - and at one point early in the second I could have levelled out for around £5 red the pair. Attempted one more trade so I could quit the match ahead but lost on it. And the next.

Even at the time I realised this was not a "predictable" match in the way many are and as such I should have just quit it for a better prospect. I so nearly did level out for a £250 loss either way when the Hewitt v Baghdatis match started. (This was the match I had down as the best one to trade for the day.) But in the end I missed the whole thing preferring to try to reduce my red on the Stepanek v Bjorkman game rather than trying and make some green on the Hewitt match.

Mistake 2 - Not levelling out early enough in the final set
Could have levelled out at around £150 red the pair at one stage. Bjorkman was a break up, his price was in freefall, I was a few hundred green on him and Stepanek looked like he'd totally given up - to the point where he'd even stopped running to try and save points. That was a key decision point. Take the £150 loss right there or run with the game. I thought Bjorkman was bossing it at that stage, couldn't see Stepanek coming back and hung on for my green. Usually I just make these decisions and level out, or adjust my red / green to reflect the odds, but this time, probably because of Stepanek's body language, I left the position alone. The decision was made in conjunction with my thinking on mistake 3

Mistake 3 - Misjudging the potential market swing
Hands up. This was the big one. And the one I'm most annoyed about as Im usually pretty accurate in predicting market movements. Shortly after the decision point in mistake 2 I was over £300 green Bjorkman and over £900 red Stepanek. Regular readers will know I have a maximum £500 loss limit on any market. (A figure which before this match I've thankfully not got too near.)

Anyway, Bjorkman was low 1.6x. As mentioned I have him down as the winner at this point. But always with an eye on my maximum loss I'm obviously working out what happens if Stepanek breaks back, however unlikely I think it is. I figured that Stepanek would definitely go odds on even though it would be something like 4-4 in the 5th set. The market would recognise the momentum was also now with him and factoring that in I believed his price would be around 1.7. Which meant I would be able to bail for around a £400 loss either way if, in what I considered the unlikely scenario, that he did break back. So everything was looking good.

Except he did break back. His price went into freefall on his own serve and I was left chasing the market. There wasn't enough liquidity on Bjorkman's side at the right price so I had to back Stepanek at 1.42 for £900. (And I was greatful for that price as it did go as low as 1.3!!). By then there was no decision to make. I'm not prepared to lose the best part of £1k an any event so had to level out for what I knew would be a heavy loss.

Anyway, bottom line is the lower then expected price left me over £500 red the pair. And that was that. Loss limit reached. Not allowed to get involved any further. So I just equalled the red out to the pound and sat there watching the last 10 minutes of the match.

Which is, of course, when Bjorkman delivered the final insult and went and won the bloody game! So if I hadn't have levelled out red 10 minutes before I'd have won over £300! That said, if he'd lost I'd have lost the best part of a grand. Looking back I made the right decsion to accept the loss. And I'm pleased I made it. Showed that even under the shittest of trading conditions I had the control to stick to my set of rules and take the loss on the chin. And I hope that if I ever reach that situation again I'd do the same thing. By that stage it was a pure gamble on who would win. (With hindsight I just wish I levelled out earlier!)

Looking forward
Well, a maximum loss was always going to happen sooner or later. The longer an event I trade is the bigger the potential for a large win or loss. Simply because I open and close that many more positions. And weighing in at around 7 hours I guess this match qualifies as being a long event!

And although I may have had far bigger wins and losses away from this blog in the past a maximum loss is still a maximum loss. Not pleasant. And it wiped out my profit for the month and left me a little in the red.

But there's no point in dwelling on the loss. I've done the blog entry, looked at what went wrong and will put it behind me. Chin up. Back to the basics and continue building those wedding funds :-) Talking of which Emma, my finacee, was incredibly good about the loss. Obviously she asks how I do each day and reads the blog. And although disappointed she tried not to show it and basically said it happens, learn from it, try not to do it again and put it out of your head before you start trading again. Sound advice. So we went out for beer, football and curry for some quality head clearing!

Anyway, obviously for every losing bet on Betfair there's a winning bet. So well done to whoever got my money and enjoy it. But be warned - I want it back with interest!! :-)

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