Daily Result: £103.47
Well, considering I somehow managed to find myself £230 red any result at the change of innings I'd have settled for any green on today's Worcestershire v Gloucestershire Pro40 game. So a win of just over £100 is a bit of a bonus really.
After 10 overs I was £100 green the pair which makes the half-time loss even more perplexing. Of course, I know how I got there. Just a bit pissed off I did! Especially as I was feeling pretty smug as I'd finally got round to buying a fan for my office and for once it didn't feel like I was sat in a sauna! A cool head though doesn't always lead to a cool thought process it seems.
Truth is I usually don't leave myself exposed to the market for very long at all. In and out very quickly. But for longer events, like the recent test match I'm prepared to take a more of a positional approach, stick with open trades for longer and not worry so much about a few ticks.
I know people have very different methods of trading and today, once I had some green behind me, I thought I would try this longer term approach as an experiment in a shorter event. It's something I've been wanting to try for a while. But unfortunately I screwed up. Twice.
For starters I took both positions at the wrong price and for too large a sum. Worcestershire for 1k at below 1.5 with Glos 65 odd for 3 in the first innings wasn't the smartest move. Bailed from that one to lose the green I'd already accumulated. Then, just to prove I really can be dumb sometimes, I did the same again later in the innings. Really got screwed that time as the liquidity seemed to dry up and I stuggled to dump it finally bailing out at 1.69!!
So after levelling out at £230 red the pair at half time I decided to get back to basics for the Gloucestershire innings. Thankfully the market obliged with first Worcestershire, and then Gloucestershire going short enabling me to simply trade away the red and settle for £100 green the pair again as I hitched a ride on the prices.
Not the most successful of experiments then. Ultimately pleased with the green because of the earlier mess but can't help thinking what could have been if I'd just stuck with the usual trading pattern. Still, you learn through experimenting. Will just put more thought into the next time I try something different. And it probably makes sense to trial it away from the blog, and for smaller sums.
Not sure if I'll get round to trading tomorrow. No televised tennis. And not convinced this England u19 ODI appeals. I don't know very much about either team at all really and am sure the liquidity will be pretty poor too. Been meaning to do a big post about trading stats for a while so might get round to that instead with the game on in the background.
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3 comments:
Glad I'm not the only one who thought Worcs were value sub 1.5!!
Well done on the green & good luck with your quest.
I am sure it is better to let most bets run as long as possible. To makea profit at this game you neeed to make as much as possible on the the games that go well for you and not take profits too soon.
Mick
Dave> Thanks! As for the sub 1.5 I just figured another wicket at that stage and it was virtually start the car time. But Glos recovered well. Hope you managed to dump you back and turn a profit on the game.
Mick> What you say is interesting me as on the face of it it makes perfect sense. (Sorry I haven't replied to it yet but believe it was you who left a long and considered comment recently on another post. I keep meaning to when I put up some trading stats but haven't got them ready yet)
Anyway, when I do finally get round to putting them up it would be interesting to see your comments on them. The reason is my trading style means I don't always let a position run as long as perhaps I should. I prefer to lock in some profit incase there's a wicket etc. But it does sometimes mean if a price goes from 1.6 to 1.5 in 10 minutes I might only benefit 8 points from it and not 10. (Thereby wasting 2 points for the knowledge that a wicket won't cost me etc) Obviously I adjust trading strategy depending on what stage of an event we're at. I know what I do works but am always open to ideas on how to improve.
Anyway, the point of all this is an element of efficiency can be measured to an extent by looking at % profit when compared to total turnover.
I'll publish some stats sometime soon which will be based on my own trading. Will be interesting to see how they compare to others. From what you say I suspect your % profit to turnover will be higher than mine in most events. But obviously smaller than someone who just has an outright punt.
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