Daily Result: £136.9
A pleasing dip into the Twenty20 cricket match between Durham and Derbyshire. Good result, good game to trade and exciting to watch. Another last ball thriller in fact!
Missed most the Derbyshire innings so picked the game up half way through. Think there was general agreement on the Betfair forum that Derbyshire was overpriced at 2.1x at the half way stage - and a couple of quick Durham wickets saw the Derbyshire price plummet. Just followed the price down as the wickets fell and within 9 overs had picked up a 3 figure green on each result.
With the match seemingly all but over I had a cheeky lay of Derbyshire at 1.06 hoping for a big scoring over. Some awesome batting put Durham right back into the game - and they even went favourites - but unfortunately I'd long since closed out the 1.06 lay. Shame as missed out on some big profit. The Twenty20 markets are so volatile in close matches though I tend to just make some profit if possible and just enjoy watching the end of the game. Getting involved at the death of these games is for braver types than me! Anyway, the game boiled down to 3 needed off the last two balls, then 3 off the last. But a last ball wicket clinched the win for Derbyshire.
One interesting thing during the game was at the fall of the 4th Durham wicket. I placed a back at 1.08 and got matched. Only to see the market suddenly shoot out to 1.13 for a split second before settling back to 1.08. Meaning I missed out on 5 ticks and someone else got the 1.13! So what happened? Well, I guess I just beat the other players into the market because of the one click trading software I use. The software (There's a free trial for anyone interested) often enables me to pick off a price just before a stack of other money tries to get the same price. Which is obviously an advantage. But it seems today getting my trade submitted so quickly was a disadvantage! And someone slightly slower got the best price!! Still, more often than not it works to my advantage so can't really complain!
Anyway, a quick congratulations to Mauresmo on winning Wimbledon. True to my poor form of late I suggested I wouldn't back her outright to win (though did say she'd be good to trade at her starting price.) I didn't see the match but have been told Henin-Hardenne basically bottled it. True or not it was Mauresmo who I thought would have the mental problems when the winning line came into sight and it seems she held on this time. So well done, and it should finally silence the doubters about her Australian open win over the Belgian too.
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2 comments:
Hi I have been reading your diary with great interest. I have been trading now for a few years mainly to pay for a decent holiday so not the same pressure as you saving for your wedding. I am quite sure that psychology plays a huge part in whether a profit is made or not. I always feel the entry point is least important it is the exit point or knowing when to get out that is vital. The priciple of letting profits run and closing losses early is what we would most like to stick to but in fact most people do the opposite - taking profits too soon and convincing ourselves that the loss will correct itself especially if we have worked out that the bet should be a winner. There are many ways to exit and this depends on the makeup of the person but often the problem with losing runs is not closing at the right time. The other important factor is position sizing - I often chuckle on betfair when I see comments about using percentage of the bank each time but to my mind each bet or trade should be considered on its merits. If you know a lot about the sport which you obviously do then some bets will be much stronger than others and should be staked accordingly. This to me has been one of the most important considerations on making a profit. For example I do not know a great deal about tennis but the henin v mauresmo match was really too close to call yesterday with the on form henin playing the world number 1, so stakes should be accordingly lower and exit points much tighter. Anyway I know you will get loads of advice from all directions. If you agree there is no such thing as a set system that works then I would suggest looking at first your position sizing for each trade and then your exit strategies. Good luck Mick
Stumbled across your blog. Fantastic reading. Best of luck with your wedding challenge
Paul
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