Daily Result: £71.92
Yes, yes, I know. How could I possibly lose money on a cricket match between Bangladesh and Sri Lanka? Surely everyone knew Sri Lanka would win. And just incase they didn't know the pre match odds of 1.06 might have been a clue!
But, of course, things are never quite that simple. First up Bangladesh beat Sri Lanka in the last ODI between the two. And then there was the question of the toss. And it's there that I went wrong. Basically I gambled there was around a 50% chance Bangladesh would bat first leading to a small drift in the Lankan price. And with anything like an average score posted by Bangladesh Sri Lanka would trade a lot higher than 1.06. At the very least 1.40 I would have thought. Which would have been a great return for an even money(ish) shot!
Things didn't quite work out that way though. Bangladesh won the toss and I was all smiles. Until they elected to field first - much to the surprise of most observers. Including the Sri Lankan team who made it quite clear they wanted to bat first. End result is Sri Lanka posted a good score of 302 in their 50 overs and never traded above my original 1.06 lay price.
To be fair I can see the argument for fielding first - even if it meant batting under lights. The pitch was green and there was movement. A few close LBW decisions went Sri Lanka's way, balls beating the outside edge resulted in nothing and leading edges just dropped short of fielders. Bangladesh were a little unlucky and Sri Lanka would have struggled if some earlier wickets had been taken. However, although I can see the argument it doesn't mean I agree and for me it was a straight forward decision to bat first, see off the early overs, post a total and watch the opposition struggle under lights - which is exactly what Sri Lanka did.
The annoying thing was Bangladesh's total of 256 would have been great for me if they had batted first. Would have meant a nice drift in the Sri Lankan price for a good profit on the day. Still I knew it was a gamble and for a small downside was willing to take it for a much bigger potential upside. Ended up losing £60 on the outright market.
Dropped the other £20 or so on the Sri Lankan innings run market by laying under 300 runs. Got out earlier in the innings for a loss if they got over and break even if they didn't when it looked like they'd walk it. But Bangladesh contained them well and, irony of ironies, it was none other than Muralitharan's 11 off 4 balls (for a strike rate of 275!!) which set it up for a final over that saw Sri Lanka scrape past 300 on the last ball of the innings!
Bit of an odd one really. Heavily fancied Sri Lanka to win but just thought the value was to be had opposing them pre-toss and hoping Bangladesh batted first. Would have netted a nice profit from that situation but I guess you can't win them all.
Popular links: Betfair trading software .....Bet Angel.....Learn to trade
No comments:
Post a Comment