NZ v England: A strange market

Daily Result: £135.45

Someone was joking with me the other day that the market has one sharp mind as it always gets the result right in the end. It was a light hearted comment that made me laugh. Yep, the market is one shrewd cookie! Certainly following a market trend is a basic trading principle that many benefit from. And done correctly with discipline it should at least give an opportunity to a realise a profit, even if it's small.

Sometimes though you just feel the market is having an off day and has lost its way before inevitably reaching the right result. And today was a case in hand. New Zealand batted first and got off to an awful start. On the toss news their price dropped to around 1.67-1.68. It just seemed too short and I was in the process of leaving a comment on the Betfair forum when the first wicket went. I missed the price and it went to 1.82-1.83. The score was 1 for 5 off 1.5 overs.

I then watched incredulously (and took an appropriate position) as their odds remained the same even though they had made only 9 runs from the first 6.5 overs - 5 of which came in the first over. A solitary 4 in the last ball of the 7th over sent the price back down to sub 1.8.

There just seemed to be one hell of a lot of support for the Kiwis in the market - to such an extent that by the time they were 2-38 of 13 overs they were still clear favourites. And were still evens by the time they were 2 for 55 off 18.2 overs!!

Anyway, the support for them in the market started to collapse as the innings progressed, wickets fell and the run rate remained well below 3 an over for a good while longer. England reached around 1.4 before a 6th wicket partnership of 120 gave the Kiwis a lifeline. Even then though, needing just 211 from 50 at 4.22 an over England were clear favourites by the time they went to bat.

Which, of course, was the perfect cue another inept performance from England. Who started dieing a slow death as the run rate rose before finishing things off quickly with what looked like some self sacrifice.

All of which resulted in my building on my change of innings New Zealand green. While all the time wishing England would just for once chase a total with ease and pocket me a lot more money!

Of course, the market got it right in the end and New Zealand won by a frankly embarrassing 90 runs. I'm still not convinced it had it right early doors though and it was by opposing it that I made most my green in this game. I guess the market is just so shrewd it took into account the "England Factor" earlier than I did!! :-)

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