Wednesday, January 31, 2007

Trading mistakes: dumb and dumber?

Daily Result: £34.20

Well, £34 is £34. A bottle of something or other for the wedding. And a profitable end to the month. But boy did I screw up today. Through not much more than pure stupidity that boiled down to a total lack of concentration.

The day started ok. Got up early for the India v West Indies ODI. Heating not being fixed until tomorrow so was a touch parky but managed to make £253.35 on the match. Won't go through the details here as I want to spend more time looking at my entry for the betting world's equivalent of a
Darwin Award.

I lost just under £220 on the snooker game between Stevens and Day. Dug myself in a right hole during the first frame that left me the equivalent of just over £200 red each player. A staggering sized fuck up considering I was only playing with chunks of £250. But very easy to do if you're feeling especially dumb.

Basically Stevens was on a break and I was considering backing him. The door went, I answered, dismissed the God Squader type and went to the bathroom before coming back to my den. Glanced at the tv, saw there was a difficult pot, heard the commentators say it was basically a make or break ball and lined up a back. It went in. I submitted a bet. Saw some lay money hadn't been immediately cancelled and submitted another thinking I may get lucky and match two chunks. Well match them I did. Because it wasn't Stevens at the table! It was Day!! And to make matters worse a third chunk of £250 got matched as I'd left it in the queue further up the ladder and neglected to cancel it before going to answer the door.

So suddenly I have a £750 red position on Day, who's a massive favourite to win the first frame in a race to 5. Win the frame he did and although I'd managed to dump some of the red it made more sense to keep the rest until the start of the second frame and see what happened.

How dumb is that? A complete lack of concentration on my part (tinged with a healthy dollop of greed) had landed me in a hole far larger than I was comfortable with. Thinking back I realise that there is a red dot on the coverage to show who is building the break. But I simply didn't have a close enough look. There was a close up of the player (back of head etc as they were cueing) and I know they have different hair styles but something must have just clicked in my brain and somehow I assumed it was Stevens at the table. Can't really explain it. Just an example of supreme stupidity caused by lack of concentration.

Anyway, the rest of the game was spent trying to sort the hole out. Frame by frame I slowly reduced the red down to £150 the pair, £130 the pair, £121 the pair etc until it was down to about £90 the pair in the last frame. Missed one frame as the oil heater we'd lent out was returned (heat at last! the central heating isn't being fixed until tomorrow) but apart from that frame by frame the red was slowly reduced.

Until I screwed up again. Though this time it was simply a trading decision (or two) I got wrong as both players missed simple pots one after another. If Day had won the frame it would have been match over. If Stevens had there would have been a decider. Day was on a break and I switched to a small green on him He missed. I altered my position, Stevens missed. I simply levelled out red and left the match. I was still up on the day and sometimes you just feel "Right, that's it, leave it before you do any more damage." So I did.


The last mistake was interesting though. Basically I took the small green option on Day considering the price I was getting was value instead of keeping the all red position. A classic decision point, one that I normally err on the side of caution of, didn't today and it cost me. Truth is I probably thought I was on the verge of a great escape and that helped colour my decision to go for it.

Anyway, a profitable day at the end. But one that should have been so much more so. Still, lesson learned. You can never overestimate the value of knowing which player is at the table!

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