Yesterday's Result: £480.6
Got to dash but thought I'd just do a quick update for yesterday rather than fall behind on the blog again.
Both the matches served up some more great cricketing action and we have and all Asian final - India v Pakistan - which promises to be a cracker. Pakistan should have pipped it last time they met but the match ended in a tie and now India are the marginal faves for the game.
Of yesterday's two matches I won on Pakistan's victory over New Zealand but lost on India's win over Australia. Also dropped a few quid on the Surrey v Lancashire championship decider. The loss in the Aussie game has certainly left me something to look at. In the last 15 or so Twenty20 games I've done I've lost on two - both of which involved Australia. Funnily enough my early positions were lays of them, my belief through much of the matches was they would lose, or at least their price was too short, but although they did eventually lose I ultimately did too.
Strange. And I'm spotting reasons for this. One is the market's belief in Australia spooks me. Even pushes me to take losses when I hit stops despite the fact I think the price is verging on ridiculous at times. This was more true in their loss to Pakistan than yesterday's to India but was still apparent yesterday.
The other is something I intend to do a more detailed blog about and was the main cause for yesterday's loss. Basically I got too impatient. I had a nice all green book, weighted in favour of India and tried to get on them too soon. The price swung back very quickly and I ended up with an all red book which I then managed to make a little worse. I should have waited a little longer. I know this, have read theoretical explanations of how and why to do it but still got it wrong. Hands up. My mistake. And one I have to learn from. Sure the volatility in the match didn't help the situation but basically I threw away a nice profit on getting one trade wrong which swung dramatically against me in the space of less than a minute. Two hours of good trading blown in less than 60 seconds by jumping the gun and making a mistake I'm aware of but still fell for. This is a topic that interests me and before too long, when the cricket is over, I'll do a more detailed blog entry on it explaining more about what I mean and the importance of getting it right. Maybe having to write about it will make me think twice before making the mistake again!
Anyway, seemed to bang that out in about 10 minutes. Hope it makes sense. Must go but will be back tomorrow for the Twenty20 final. Reckon it might just be worth tuning into. :-)
5 comments:
hi bt,
when you take a position in the market, if it goes against you, how far do you normally let it go before deciding to cut the trade? the same applies to when a trade goes for you, when do you decide that the profit is enough?
many thanks
bb
Hey man!
Like what you did with the wedding challenge.
Anyway, I think maybe you should set yourself another target to push for.
Hi Bft,
My question is similar.Suppose if you backed 1.72 for 1k in cricket.Then your liability is 1k and that odds drifted to 4.72 in 2 overs then how you manage that?
Dip K
Hi,
I've been reading your blog for many months. You have done a truly incredible job, and I hope your success continues. But what with the break for the wedding and honeymoon, and your lack of regular updates since that time, I'm wondering how much that has killed off interest in the blog from past readers. Have the numbers dropped? If so I hope you can get them back up, as that will likely mean more posts, and so more trading stories for all of us to read. Here's to your continued success. Cheers!
bb> Apologies for not answering earlier. The answer to this is partly in an answer to a question I address in the comments section of this blog entry today. (Oct 1)
Basically I'm a believer in cutting losses quickly but will use on the spot assessment when deciding whether to actually bail. All this is in the boundaries of the maximum amount I'm willing to lose on an event which is discussed in the link. I also tend to very rarely open a position with all the money I'm willing to use. So closing out losing positions, that I do regularly, should never really cost me too much unless I've lot it run too far, or more often, been caught by volatility greater than I expected. When I'm trading an event I will open and close a lot of positions. Many are relatively small though which helps me to not mind closing them out for a loss. The bigger positions I open tend to be when I'm pretty sure a winner has emerged / something will happen and I'm going to at least get some market movement in my favour immediately. These can be harder to close but I have to make those decisions less frequently. In doing so I follow the same guidelines.
Anon> I'm trying to think of something suitable. Any ideas?
Dip> Simple answer. I'd never get in that situation. I wouldn't let a position run that far against me without closing it out. And if a market was that volatile I wouldn't be pumping that kind of money into it. I'd be using small stakes, or hopefully sitting back and enjoying the match with a green book :-)
Cascot> Thanks for the kind words. Numbers have not really dropped off no. And I'm guessing that those who have might be more to do with the lack of recent updates. It's strange. I thought the wedding was a nice hook for the blog. Most people are more interested in asking how I do what i do etc though. Just in the last few days numbers have picked up again and from today (Oct 1) I should be updating just about daily again.
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