Daily Result: £64.55
So, perhaps predictably, the first day of Wimbledon saw some good old British rain so I decided to skip the tennis and have a dip into the cricket in the afternoon. I'd have preferred hanging on for the tennis but the fear of the perma-tanned Sir Cliff making an appearance convinced me to switch sides and leave the tv zapper well alone.
I'd messed around on the West Indies v India 3rd test market for a few minutes a couple of days ago and had the princely sum of £3 green whatever the result. Not satisfied with the pint it would buy at the wedding I managed to turn this into a £64.55 loss.
Only got involved shortly before lunch and did build up some moderate two-figure green across the board. Managed to lose most of that when Sehwag appeared to still be finishing his lunch and was LBW 1st ball when play resumed. For me he was the key really and I'd just put a £200 red against the draw. Sigh.
Anyway, got it back to all green and when Dhoni came in at the fall of the next wicket and promptly dispatched the ball for six over the bowlers head I decided to have a bit of a punt. For a relatively small red on the draw I'd could have a nice 4-figure green on India. So I went for it. Not my normal style at all. A very rare move and a result to remind me why! I genuinely thought the Indians would have a fair crack at it though. Even if they got close I'd have been able to trade out for a nice three figure green.
To cut a long story short, despite keeping the run rate manageable when Dhoni was out the Indians shut up shop and played for the draw. I stupidly missed his wicket with an open position (Doh!) and by the time I was back there was little point in backing the draw price. So I left the position and just hoped there would be a last 10/12 over onslaught. There wasn't, negativity ruled the day and the game was played out to a bore draw - though by then I was watching an even more boring game of football between Switzerland and Ukraine having accepted the loss.
So a £64.55 loss for leaving my general trading principles and having a bit of a longer term punt. Annoyed with the loss but it was one of those situations where having evaluated it I considered it worth it for a smallish loss. I very rarely take such positions (sometimes wiping some green against a 1.0x favourite in women's tennis to build large green on the other player is one example) I guess the key to taking such positions is value. I thought it a value position to take. And if I hadn't have stupidly missed Dhoni's wicket the loss would have been that much smaller too.
Anyway, weather permitting, I'll be taking a look at Wimbledon tomorrow and back to trading in a more usual manner.
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3 comments:
The Indians had been backed earlier in the Match at 1000 to 1 -how often do thousand to one shots come home.Answer as often as you get £1000 green.Ask yourself-do Indians use Betfair?does Rahul Dravid have an account?had he backed the draw day 1?
Smiling Assassin
Interesting. And although anyone knowing that India were going to shut up shop would have cleaned up in that market I don't there was anything really underhand. Just wasn't worth the risk of losing I guess and there was some protecting of averages going on on the side. Dravid is hardly the most exciting batsmen afterall.
As for 999/1 shots. Rarely I grant you. But over the years, especially in specials markets, I've had winners nearly as high as that.(though layed off at much lower)
And though not 999/1 who can forget Australia being 1.01 at the halfway stage in the recent ODI with South Africa? The result? The Saffers had the last laugh. It happens in cricket just like in other sports.
You also have to ask if 999/1 was really the true price. Were they really only going to win 1 in 1000?!
And, of course, it doesn't really matter what price they had been. The only important price is what they were when I got involved. If something is a 14/1 shot for example it has the same chance of winning as any other 14/1 shot irrespective of whether it was once a 999/1 shot.
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