Tuesday, September 19, 2006

If it looks too good to be true...

A timely reminder for us all today that if a bet looks too good to be true there's normally a pretty good reason for it. Like it is too good to be true. And you're about to do your money. So why not listen to those deafening alarm bells?!

And so it was with an interesting case that cropped up on the Betfair cricket forum over the last few days. Where a punter, let's call him Punter A, ended up betting £1k on a 1.02 shot thinking the result was already known and he was taking £20 off some mug - only to realise he'd just struck the dumbest bet he's ever likely too and had effectively just thrown £1k away. Distraught he turned to the forum for advice and an interesting tale unfolded.

The market involved was the Completed Match market in the 2nd ODI between South Africa and Zimbabwe. Heavy rain meant the match had been abandoned. And at that point Punter A read a post on the Betfair cricket forum pointing out there was still money available both ways on the completed match market.

Thinking he could nick a few quid Punter A rushed over to the market and made the 1k bet at 1.02 on the match not being completed - as it had already been called off - and then no doubt sat back congratulating himself on how he'd just made a simple risk-free £20 at the expense of some numpty.

Except, of course, life isn't that simple. There was the little question of the reserve day the next day that the match was to be played on. With a rain-free weather forecast. And some Betfair rules that quite clealy stated:

"Please be aware that this bet will carry over onto any reserve day and will be settled on the official result of the match."

Whoops. Goodbye £1k. Cue distraught Punter A explaining his story on the forum. With much sympathy it must be said given the circumstances involving the initial post he'd read - but also some saying he got what he deserved. He was trying to take "free money" off someone - and got trapped himself.

But then, with his £1k down the drain the most extraordinary thing happened. Betfair settled the market in favour of Punter A a day before the rescheduled match was due! Cue heated debate about what the hell was going on. Which got even stranger when those on the other side of the bet later reported they had also been paid out as winners!!

Now I've no idea how Betfair reached their decisions on these markets. I suspect a mistake was made and the sums involved were so little they just accepted the cost rather than take money back from customers. It's easy to make a convincing argument for settling the market either way but I'm not going into it here. Though perhaps a clarification on the rules might be useful for the future.

Of course, the guy who emerged with the biggest smile on his face at the end of it all was Punter A. Who thought he was making free money, apparently got trapped himself, thought he'd lost £1k (far more than his usual bet size it turned out) only to find the money back in his account leaving him trying to work out why!

So for whatever reason Punter A got lucky. But in the mean time provided a good reminder us all that the old cliche is true - if a bet looks too good to be true it probably is! So check it out properly before you lump on!!

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2 comments:

Anonymous said...

That's funny - and there's definately a lesson in there. That guy got very lucky but deserved to learn the hard way. Thought he was making easy money without checking everything out first.

Anonymous said...

The beauty of knowledge...
Excellent entry once again...

Talk soon