Friday, October 13, 2006

Cricket trading loss review

Daily Result: £184.28

I learned a long time ago that you can't win every on every event you trade on and begrudgingly accept the occasional loss as an occupational hazard. But some losses are far more annoying than others and today's was a case in hand. I'd already mentioned earlier in the week that despite Zimbabwe's recent ODI series win over Bangadesh I thought Bangladesh would win today's ICC Champions Trophy qualifier. And they did. Comfortably. But that just makes today's loss even more frustrating!

In fact the whole game was a little frustrating. Bangladesh batted first and proceeded to score for most of the innings at a rate slower than some teams manage in test matches. It was pretty dull stuff to watch. But rather than go through the whole game in detail I'll take a closer look at the 11 overs that effectively led to me losing money as it's probably the bit that'll interest most people.

Perhaps the reason for the slow start was given the pitch and conditions Bangladesh were never going to need a big score to win this game. Nevertheless an impressive 123 not out from Nafees saw Bangladesh reach a respectable 231. At the change of innings I was green Bangladesh and red Zimbabwe. There wasn't a lot of profit in it (the odds hadn't moved that much during the innings) but I was in a postion where I could go all green. Unless a match is seemingly completely over at the change of innings I'll often level out, or at least reduce any red I have. The old adage that you should never judge a total until both teams have had a bat is a good one to bear in mind. And if the team batting second don't lose early wickets, especially with a relatively low required run rate, their price moves in quickly.

The problem was the price on Bangladesh was 1.42 to lay. Which I thought was far too high. Put simply I wasn't willing to lay at that kind of price. 1.3 maybe. But 1.4x just seemed plain wrong. So I decided to leave it. And that's where the problems started. As it was the first 11 overs of the Zimbabwean innings that resulted in my loss.

The trouble was although they were eventually skittled out for 130 Zimbabwe didn't lose a wicket early enough for me. And as they were only just behind the run rate to start with their price started coming in rapidly. Which, of course, meant the Bangladesh price started drifting. I'd set a point in mind where I was going to bail out of my Bangla back hoping I wouldn't have to make the trade. But I did and ended up laying them in the 1.7x range. Which killed me. It was gutting to have to do it. I was still pretty sure they'd win but there comes a time when you have to cut your losses. I set a loss limit on each event I trade and do my best to get nowhere near that. Another 20 runs on the board without the loss of another wicket at the time I bailed and I'd have been looking a big loss in the face. Perhaps I should have been more patient. But the problem is patience can cost you money sometimes!

Anyway, then, to compound an already bad situation I laid Bangladesh again as the runs were flowing with the aim of nicking a quick few ticks in between balls and overs. Not a smart move as I failed to get out and another wicket fell almost immediately. The Bangla price moved back into the 1.4x range. And I was left with an even bigger potential loss.

At that point I simply levelled out the red and accepted I was going to lose on the match. In the space of 11 overs I'd turned a winning position into a guaranteed loss. Mainly because I thought the price between innings was wrong and wasn't willing to take it. But I was a little unlucky with the timing of the wickets. (If the first two had each fallen an over or two earlier I'd have been fine.)

Anyway, when it became clearer that Bangladesh had the game in the bag a little later I reduced my red on them and shifted as much over to Zimbabwe as I could. But that still left me looking at a loss of around £185. Of course, at that point I could have deposited another £1k into my Betfair account and "bought my way out of trouble". And if I had I would have made a small 3-figure profit. But at the same time strange things can happen in betting markets. I
start each day with a set a bank and have a rule that I don't deposit more money if I'm losing on an event. Sure, sometimes you can prevent a loss but sooner or later chasing like that will lead to a very big loss. So I've just taken the loss on the chin, put it down to experience and have reviewed my trading to see if there's anything I can learn from it.

Like I said - you can't win every time you trade. But my aim is to make a profit the vast majority of times - and hopefully I can return to winning ways in tomorrow's match between Sri Lanka and the West Indies! Both teams have already qualified the for Champions Trophy proper but the game should still be competitive as the losers will have to join the group with Australia, India and England already in it!

Popular links: Betfair trading software .....Bet Angel.....Learn to trade

No comments: