Daily Result: £158.46
Just didn't get it right for most of today. Missed the early news about Asif and Akhtar being withdrawn from the ICC Champions Trophy for failing drugs tests so didn't manage to make a penny on the subsequent market swings. Then traded badly and missed out on some nice potential profits. Started out on the New Zealand v South Africa match but it just seemed everytime I opened a position I got it wrong to start with - which ultimately led to me missing out on a big profit as I was unable to take real advantage of some crazy odds during the South Africa run chase. And to top that I then managed to turn a £40 green on Martina Hingis when she was 1.01 into a £25 loss! (I said it was bad!) Finally got my head back together for a quick dip into the Henman game in the evening.
Won't run through each event in detail. But the cricket is worth a mention. I made just under £130 on it which on the face of it is great. But it should have been a lot more. Apart from anything else I was £160 red the pair at the change of innings.
What makes the cricket worth discussing is the potential profits to be made at the moment. Something very odd is happening over in India in this ICC Champions Trophy tournament. Bascially the run totals have so far been very low. Mainly due to poor pitches (and occasional suicidal shot selection). Throughout the qualifiers and real matches to date only 2 of the 6 teams that have batted first have managed to last 50 overs (3 out of 8 games). Zimbabwe were skittled in 30.1 overs, West Indies in 30.4, England in 37, New Zealand in 45.4 and Bangladesh in 46.3. The average first innings score has been just 183. Zimbabwe have been dismissed for 86. The West Indies for just 80!
Anyway, of course the point is if the team batting first is finding it hard going then invariably the team batting second will. But the market doesn't always seem to have always caught up with this fact yet and is favouring too strongly the team that has fielded first.
Yesterday's New Zealand v South Africa match is a case in hand. For large parts of the South African run chase the odds were simply wrong. It was as if despite the fact that the South Africa batsmen were struggling the market simply didn't believe New Zealand's 195 was enough. (In fact they won by a massive 87 runs!) It was a crazy situation. Like people who weren't aware of the pitch conditions were joining the match, making a quick assessment and piling into what would normally be a great value bet on the team chasing. Except in these conditions it isn't.
It was well worth making a point of watching some of thee qualifier games to get a general idea of conditions as it's undoubtedly saved me a few quid. Unfortunately I keep getting myself into poor situations in these games and haven't yet picked up a decent win. Maybe tomorrow in the Sri Lanka v Pakistan game!
Sri Lanka are actually one of the teams that has adapted to the conditions the best (and it's probably no coincidence that the other team, Bangladesh, is also Asian). This is making some of the outright prices on Asian sides pretty attractive. And means tomorrow we might actually see a decent first innings total. Especially if Sri Lanka bat first given that Pakistan's new ball attack has been sent home.
Despite that it's worth bearing in mind in future games that the pitches so far are making batting difficult, innings totals are lower than what would normally be expected and the market isn't always taking this into account. Good luck if you get involved! And feel free to leave comments on any post :-)
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2 comments:
Hi,
I was wondering if you went on that trading course that you link to and if so what you thought of it?
Mike
Hi Mike,
No, I have not attended one of the courses. Though I have read favourable comments from other Betfair users on the forums. I know Betfair staff have also attended the courses in the past.
Peter Webb, the guy who runs the course, is a successful Betfair user himself and a well respected poster on the forums there.
As well as his involvement with Bet Angel he also has a site on probability theory which is well worth a look.
There are some testimonials on the site from people who have taken the course but I'm sure if you contact him you can find out more about the courses - or even just put a shout out for someone who has attended one on the forums over at Betfair. I'd be surprised if the feedback was anything but excellent.
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