Thursday, November 02, 2006

Back to winning ways

Daily Result: £477.25

Wow. What a difference a day can make! It seems yesterday's loss certainly sharpened the old mind. And turned round a losing start to the month into a profitable one along the way.

Made the money on the second ICC Champions Trophy semi-final between South Africa and the West Indies. Truth be told things just went my way. I tend to classify cricket matches into types - mainly along the lines of whether the batsman or bowlers are on top - and find some game types easier to trade profitably than others. Today's was a type I tend to have more success with.

The South Africans won the toss and decided to bat first. They got off to a pretty good start but their price was often too short. Throughout the innings it basically traded in the high 1.3x to mid 1.7x range. But mostly in the middle. Which meant that for large parts of their innings we had the situation where there was a virtual free lay of the Saffers. By that I mean you could comfortably lay them at, say 1.52, and know that if they continued as they were the price wouldn't be that much shorter at the end of the innings. But if they collapsed their price would shoot out. In other words it was one of those situations I'm always on the look out for. Small realistic downside but much larger potential upside.

As it was I got a little unlucky. Wickets did fall but never really close enough to cause a big drift. Umpire Simon Taufel turned down two plum LBWs near the start of the innings. If they'd been given it would have been price swing time but it wasn't to be. Which all meant that at the change of innings I had a small green either team and hadn't actually traded that much.

The Windies needed 259 to win and they were 3.0 to make it. I missed the first few balls and by the time I settled down again Chris Gayle had cracked two boundaries off the first 3 balls and the price was 2.5! All a bit annoying as I had an ask of 3.05 in the queue that wasn't matched. But it showed Gayle's intent and the next 10-12 overs were a batting exhibition which enabled a frenzy of trading as the Windies' price crashed before finally bottoming out and settling around the 1.25 mark for a while. Cracking stuff to watch and trade! When the price finally settled it felt like the calm after a storm.

Eventually Gayle and Chanderpaul put on 154 without loss before Chanderpaul retired hurt. Even despite the Windies recent history of spectacular collapses I don't think anyone really thought they'd mess up from that position and they didn't. Fittingly Chris Gayle hit the winning runs and the West Indies won by 6 wickets with 6 overs spare. Gayle's innings was awesome. 133 from 135 balls. I've said it before and I'll say it again - don't underestimate the Windies in the one day form of the game!!

Anyway, it all means we've got a fantastic final lined up between the Australians and the West Indies this Sunday. The Windies have already beaten the Aussies this tournament in a last over thriller. Hope the final is as good and wouldn't put it past them to do it again!

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