Daily Result: £222.88
Ah feck it. So wanted a winning start to the world cup but it wasn't to be. In fact I was lucky to escape with the red I did. All started so well too. Was very wary not to rush in too soon so started trading the opening game between West Indies and Pakistan in small sums and cautiously. Managed to build up a small but satisfying green either result early doors before giving a masterclass demonstration in how to mistime trades and plunge into the red.
There were several instances where I opened a position only to see it move pretty quickly against me. Even laying Pakistan as Lara and Samuels started to get going the ball before Lara was out wasn't the worst example in terms of cost! That honour goes to bailing from a small green Windies / large red Pakistan position 4 balls before the Inzi / Yousuf partnership was broken. Sure, I was already in a bit of a mess to get in that position. But as the partnership grew the Windies price started drifting very quickly. I had a cut off point at 1.85 and a good 35/40 point drift in not much more than 5 minutes saw the price arrive so I bailed for an equalish red. Four balls later Yousuf was out, the Windies price collapsed and I was screwed! :-)
From there on the Windies price made a beeline for 1.01. When the result became obvious I used some funds above my £1k to trade my red down a few ticks here and there. Very cautiously. But an example of how I can make more efficient use of my time, and potential profit, at the end of low volatility cricket matches as I discussed in the recent cricket world cup money management post.
So, despite all the earlier errors I was just 4 balls from a profit in the opening match. But hindsight is a wonderful thing and I wasn't to know. Bailing was the right thing to do. The market would have continued to move rapidly against me without the wicket that fell. I guess there's always going to be days where the rub of the green appears to go against you but these things even out over time. And anyway, there' still 50 odd games to go. Marathon, not a sprint and all that. Onwards and hopefully upwards!
Speaking of which I was greedy and tried to get some 1.02 about Australia v Scotland tomorrow. Was near the front of the queue with a lot of 1.01 on offer but after the Windies game the 1.01 disappeared pretty quickly and I don't have a position. Will probably take a look in on the Kenya v Canada match tomorrow though. Kenyan win for me as the price suggests. The game is on Sky interactive so it'll be interesting to see what the liquidity is like. Whether people will play that or get involved in the subsidiary markets in the Aussie match instead as that's the main Sky Sports offering.
Anyway, hope you all had a better start to your cricket world cup campaigns than me. Catch you tomorrow.
4 comments:
Hope day 2 of the Cricket World Cup was better for you and you got on the right side of the Kenyans.
Reading your blog has inspired me to have a go at trading and record my exploits.
If this counts as spamming please delete - if not can you put a link up for my site which will be regularly updated with mainly football trading
http://paulthedaddy.blogspot.com/
Hi BT
Been looking at tennis trading recently and i have noted that there are huge swings very early on when there's a break of serve against the fav. Tonight both Murray and Ferrer were trading 1.73/1.84 both lost there first serve and both were trading subseqeuntly at 2.2+ surely that one break very early in the match does not warrant such a move, be interested in hearing your opinion?
I know from my cricket trading that there are similar movements after the favs get of to a slow or bad start the latest being W.indies 1.75 pre match and 2.4 when the game was 4 overs old after the loss of a single wicket.
Then of course Kenya's price had doubled today before they woke up and started to play.
Anyway as i said i would be interested in your opinion?
Buzzy> Cheers and no worries about leaving details about the blog. Always happy to link to other betting blogs. Am just redoing a page now with more on and will include when I do the update. Thanks for linking back. Anyone else with a betting blog. If you want to exchange links just let me know!
Anon> Didn't catch either of the two tennis examples you mention and didn't look at the markets at all during either match though did see the first set Murray tie break. The size of the swing obviously depends on a number of factors. ie, 3/5 set match, why the break (injury concerns?) how well the players are actually playing etc, what stage of the set the break comes etc. You say Murray was 1.7x and went to 2.2ish on a service break. I don't know the individual circumstances but it doesn't seem that big a swing to me in a 3 set game. (Was it early in the set?) By breaking Davydenko becomes fave for the set and then just needs 1 of 2 to win. Makes him a clear fave for me. These bigger swings on breaks is exactly why I stressed recently (see the comments) they I try to avoid being on the wrong side of the break. I much prefer to take the longer shot and be on the player who might do the breaking if a suitable situation arises.
If you want a more detailed answer from someone who probably saw the game I suggest you could try asking Matt over at Punt. He's a pro who trades tennis full time and has a far better knowledge and understanding of tennis trading than I do.
Thanks for the reply and the link, it was actually the first game in the match!
Cant claim to be an expert but i reckon if you were able to back every fav at 20-30% larger odds than the established bookmakers were offering pre match, after the first game your likely to be a profitable punter!
Post a Comment