Well thank feck for that! The new carpets are down, most the painting is done, the electricity works again and I'm back online and rearing to go. Typically there's nothing for me to actually trade today - but with some more cricket world cup warm ups later this week - before the main event itself - it's going to be a busy couple of months trading from here. Can't wait to get back into it all again and hopefully save a little more for the big day.
Still got some painting to do but it's not where the carpets are new and can be done over the next few weeks. So for the next few days I'll be trading what I can inbetween sorting out my new office. (Den as Emma insists on calling it). Lots of new gadgets to hook up and I'll finally have a trading station worthy of the name.
Only caught some small parts of the warm up games to date but enough to assess the various wickets I've seen so far. Have also put some thought into the new money management system I'll be using for cricket matches during the world cup and I'll outline this shortly. I'm away for the weekend so will probably put it up over then.
Anyway, that's it, I'm back and hopefully the blog posts should return to normal now. Apologies again for the lack of recent updates but we had to virtually gut half the house and I just haven't always been able to get online to trade or update - or even work!
2 comments:
Hi,
referring to your blog entry "Return to tennis trading" on Sunday, February 25, 2007, I would like to know when do you get in a game or start a trade. For me it is very difficult to understand how to trade a tennis-match.
Do you get into a trade when the odds are very low and lay the favorite or do you trade every single point that is played?
I would be very lucky if you could give some advice.
thanks,
Daniel (sorry for my bad english)
Hi Daniel,
Truth is there are several ways I look to get involved in tennis games that I trade though I do only play in running. As I mentioned "trading the serve" in the post you mention I'll explain that one a little. It's a pretty basic idea, and I do use more sophisticated approaches too, but as an introduction to tennis trading it's pretty good.
So when I'm trading the serve I'm not interested in who wins the match. And sometimes not the game either. But really the next point. What I'm doing is betting on which way the market will move at the end of the next point.
Example: Let's say it's 0-0 and Ivo Karlovic is serving against James Blake. Now Karlovic has a monster serve. Is currently 2nd in the most aces served charts in the ATP tour, gets 67% of his first serves in, wins 86% of his first serve points and 92% of his service games. Now Blake is a pretty good server himself, but he wins just 28% of the first services he faces - when he manages to return it.
I therefore guess the point goes to karlovic and so I back him. If he wins the point (which he will more often than not) I have a profit. I can either let it ride or trade out. Repeat many times in a game and I have a very healthy profit.
So when I say I'm trading the serve I mean I've identified a good server, and hopefully a weak returner and will be backing the server to win points, and the service game.
Of course, there are drawbacks. The serve might be broken. The first point might be lost. It might go 0-15, 0-30 etc. This is where people have to decide for themselves what they're going to do. I have my own ideas and the trick is to adhere to them. The one thing I do definitely try and avoid is being on the wrong side of a service break though as obviously this can move the market heavily against you. Sometimes I also notice there seems to be so many people trying to back the server the price tumbles several ticks in anticipation and it often appears value to lay it! Obviously each circumstance has to be looked at in the wider context of the game, and which surface it's being played on.
Anyway, it's basic but it's how I started out tennis trading so hope it helps. There are several sites out there with tennis stats available but for some free stats on the key areas of the game this page is well worth a look.
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