Friday, March 16, 2007

I believe in miracles....

Daily Result: £0

So much so that I even paid homage by having a cup of hot chocolate before I went to bed last night! Honestly!! But seriously I had a Houdini like escape in the Ireland v Zimbabwe match yesterday. So much so that this morning I still felt the need for a rousing burst of
The Great Escape.

So what happened? Why all the relief? Well, it' simple. I got in a hole, was facing a maximum loss and the match was a tie - meaning all bets were void. So my red disappeared and I headed out for an ill deserved beer and curry with a "he needs sectioning" sized grin on my face.

Of course, the Betfair cricket forum went into meltdown when people realised that the rule next to the market that says: "If the official result is a Tied Match in any Test, County or Limited Overs match then all bets on Match Odds markets will be void" really means what it says. There were the usual threats to tell tales to the Racing Post about how unfair it all is even though it's there in a black and white and there's a Tied Match market. Well, all I'm saying is the rule has cost me in the past, especially in taking out needless tie insurance in close games, but has also saved me money in the past. Yesterday it saved me again. And while I don't particularly like the rule right now I'm a big fan! Traders are nothing if not fickle!! :-)


Which is all well and good. But the real question is how the hell did I get in such a hole, especially when I was over £50 green the pair within 10 minutes of the match starting. Simple really. Forget everything that went before it the real turning point in this match was fairly deep into the Zimbabwean run chase. By then my book was smallish green Zimbabwe, medium red Ireland (I'd traded pretty poorly after a good start) and I had Zimbabwe down as the winners.

I then made a classic mistake. Truly dumb. Schoolboy. Village. In fact any "you're crap" cricketing cliche you want to throw at it. All are applicable. I stopped concentrating. Was too busy chatting to various people on MSN. The Zimbabweans lost a wicket. No hassle I thought. Until my red on Ireland suddenly increased. I'd accidentally left a back of zimbabwe in the queue earlier and someone unsurprisingly had helped themselves to some free money.

My book was now a little uncomfortable. As another wicket and I'd be approaching my maximum loss. So what do I do? Dress it up how you want but effectively I chased the loss on the accidental position I'd just opened. Decided to make several quick sizeable trades to increase my Zimbabwe green at the short lived higher odds so I could get back to where I was quickly as the price started coming in again. Of course I got caught. There was another wicket. And I lost another 30 points. Result? Max loss territory. Within 10 minutes I'd gone from being in a fairly comfortable position where I could profit whatever the result to being in a deep hole with no way out. (Well, by then I was joking about the tie but never actually expected it!)

So there you have it. A stupid lack of concentration followed by a poor decision nearly cost me a maximum loss and I had a very lucky escape. Ridiculously fortuitous in fact. I still can't figure out how Zimbabwe managed to snatch a tie from the jaws of victory.

Anyway, the end result is I've had a serious reminder about the importance of concentration. It's one of the basics. I ignored it and didn't deserve to escape as I did. I was lucky. Don't intend to put myself in that situation again. And reckon I might just buy a lottery ticket this week!

Looking ahead, today's big match is New Zealand v England. And I'm likely to miss all of it! Heading out shortly for the day with Emma to buy some furniture and then out with my best man later for some drinks. Might catch a bit of the game but after yesterday's near disaster it's probably best to just take a break and clear my head. Best of luck if you get involved. And concentrate!!

3 comments:

Simon said...

Ireland-Zimbabwe was my first go at trading a match. Are they all that tense?! I also had a reasonably large red on Ireland and was panicking at the last minute!

Unknown said...

Hi BT,

I am really pleased that you got a reprieve. Good luck for the weekend, I hope you make plenty and I'll keep my fingers crossed for your lottery ticket.

Ray

The Betfair Trader said...

Simon> Hope you enjoyed it! No, not all matches are like that. Think I might have a heart attack if they were!! That was a very tense match, made more so by my awful position on it. I think it was only the third tie in cricket world cup history. Though was also the 2nd or 3rd I've traded in the last year or so. Always amazes me when people say cricket is dull. It's a fantastic sport to trade as we all saw today.

Ray> Cheers. Still feeling very fortunate about it all. Unfortunately my lottery ticket didn' win. Still, a £1 loss better than a maximum one. And I think I've had my share of luck for a while. :-)

Good to see you're doing well and keep socking it to ATR about the xtra service!