England humiliated by South Africa

Daily result: £419.97

Well I guess it couldn't last. Had a great run of results recently and was due a loss. Today it arrived in style in the South Africa v England game and bought me back to earth with a bit of a bump.

I'm not especially annoyed about the size of the loss. Sure, it's never nice to lose but it's well within my old maximum loss limit of £500 and even further within my trial max loss limit of £750 for the duration of the Cricket World Cup. And a positive to take away from it is that I managed to stay perfectly in control when it was obvious everything had gone more than a bit wrong. The match reached a point in the England innings during the collapse where it seemed pretty obvious South Africa were going to win. At that point I could have deposited more money and bought myself out of the position and ended up with a small green. Of course, the risk is something out of the ordinary then happens and I do my absolute nuts trying to chase. Take that "buying your way out of trouble" route too often and you will get bitten badly eventually. So best to leave it, take the loss on the chin and stick to the money management principles that were worked out when I was clear headed and not under any trading pressure. And that's exactly what I did today. I used most of my daily bank to back South Africa (albeit too late and at pretty short odds), worked out what the price was where I would have to bail for my maximum loss if the Saffer's price started to drift and just got on with some other stuff. Nothing to worry about. All very calm really. The decisions were effectively out of my hands and money management rules had taken over. Thankfully the South Africans made a beeline to 1.01 and I lost £420 rather than the £750 I could have.

I am a little more frustrated with the result from a trading point of view however. Basically because I made mistakes. But there's one that stands out and really set the scene for the loss that eventually materialised. The irony is after yesterday's post about the toss it was a toss related mistake that got the ball rolling. Basically England won the toss and I got on them. However, they chose to bat and the market didn't like it. The price drifted rapidly. It did then come in slowly but I still hadn't quite got back to my break even point when they went out to bat. This is where a crucial decision was required and, although it's easy to say with hindsight , I got it wrong. Hindsight or no hindsight.

The problem was I'd both layed South Africa and backed England on the toss news. Heavily. At the start of the innings I needed South Africa to come in 6 ticks, with the appropriate drop in England's odds, to get out level. I should have just got out red there and then and started again. Especially given my opinion on the quality of England's top order in ODIs at the moment. What stopped me doing it was the size of the red I would be facing if I got out. So I made a mistake and decided to stay in the position. Calculated risk. I basically figured a couple of quick boundaries in the first few overs and I'll be in profit.

Of course, that didn't happen! England redefined their own already exemplary definition of negative batting and managed to score precisely 1 off the first 3 overs. Of course, the market was moving against me and alarm bells were ringing. But it got to the stage where I figured if a wicket goes now I'm only going to lose another 10 ticks so take the risk. Colouring this decision was the acceleration, when it comes, will still see me level very quickly.

Well, the acceleration never really came. But the wickets did. Turning what could be argued was a very slow but steady start keeping wickets in hand ( 9 off the first 7 overs!) for an onslaught later on into a disasterous start for England that saw me bailing for a sizeable loss.

I then compounded these losses by laying South Africa once it looked like Strauss and Pietersen were getting going. More quick wickets fell and I reached the position where if I put my daily bank on South Africa I'd end up with a smallish green on them. Of course, rather than doing that I waited for their price to drift a little to make the green bigger but the wickets kept falling. Again I'd wait to get a bigger price - and again wickets would fall. My timing was awful. In the end I took the plunge but by then it was too late and I was left all red and with not much else to do for the match. Indeed, I didn't trade a large part of the end of the England innings and none of the South African one. Just had it on in the background out of interest with my max loss stop in place in the market. Though I even took that down when it became clear South Africa were blitzing the English bowling and we were in for a quick result. In the end they made the chase (they needed 155 to win) and won the game by 9 wickets with more than 30 overs to spare. Total humiliation for the England! But one which might now finally ring some changes after the World Cup.

Anyway, it's not all doom and gloom. Realised today that it is exactly 5 years since I went self employed so that was worth a drink or several :-) And today's loss prompted me to see what my overall position is on the World Cup so far. Small fry compared to many I know but today's loss left me on £4.8k profit. Didn't even realise I'd been above £5k. And even though I changed my money management for the world cup I'd have ripped your hand off for anywhere near £5k before the tournament!! So, the plan is to put today's loss behind me - afterall, I've still got more than I had yesterday morning - and to make sure I'm clearly focussed next time I get involved. Hope I'm back to winning ways soon! :-)