Result since last update: £1,531.41
Well, well, well. England won the 4th and final test against the West Indies. And with more than £7 million bet on the draw (£14.5 million matched) there's going to be some sore heads around. Especially as around £2 million of it was at 1.2 or below - with the lowest price being matched at 1.06.
Which kind of makes me wonder how the "Thanks for your money mugs", "It's free money on the draw" Betfair forum contributors feel now. Hard to tell as they've gone strangely quiet. Still, I'm sure I'm worrying needlessly. No doubt everyone managed to "trade out" for an all green position! In the mean time, back in the real world, the rest of us have had another good reminder that there is no such thing as free money on Betfair.
As for the match itself it's harder to tell if it was inspired England play or a woeful Windies' performance that gave us a result. A bit of both I think. We did get to see yet more brilliance from Chanderpaul. The Windies would have been slaughtered without him. The mind boggles at what he must have been thinking as, not out for over 1000 minutes, he watched batsmen after batsmen give their wickets away at the other end. But it was also fitting that after several hours of bowling at him man of the series Panesar finally got him out with the last ball faced by the Windies in the series.
The betting, especially during the build up to the match and the first few days, was all about the weather. Or, the inclement weather, as it seems de rigeur to say. Basically it pissed down. Which saw a massive shortening in the draw price. And prompted all the free money comments on Betfair. As I said before the match I'd taken a bit of a break and largely missed the prematch movements. And as I've not been able to do the whole test match I basically kept my book pretty level. £400 all green one day, £600 another etc.
Broke ranks on the last day, which I could concentrate fully on. Unfortunately I was foolish enough to back the draw the ball before Gayle was out for the first wicket of the day and instantly wiped a few hundred profit out. But aside from that things went well. I didn't get too involved until I felt the England win was inevitable. Which in turn meant I missed out on a truly massive win. That said I can hardly be disappointed. £1.5k profit is big for me and I'm well pleased. Certainly would have taken it at the start when the draw was 1.3x and I had nothing in the book.
Anyway, the win means England wrapped the series up 3-0 and the next test action is against India next month. But that doesn't mean there's not much cricket to bet on. Oh no! The Twenty20 season is about to kick off and a quick glance through the Sky schedules shows there's live cricket on TV virtually everyday for the next two months! Heaven :-)
With all the wedding and honeymoon planning that needs doing, not to mention stag nights to be gone on, there's no way I can trade all that cricket. But I'm looking forward to getting stuck into it when I can and hopefully, fingers crossed, there's some good profit to be made.
3 comments:
Excellent result, well done. Really wish I'd piled into laying that draw, as you say it was based purely on predictions for the next 5 days and we all know in this country how unpredictable the weather really is.
Hey,
Just wondering how you can tell how much has been matched on a particular outcome on Betfair (eg. you say that £2m was matched at <1.2 for the draw)?
Also, are you going to keep the blog going after your wedding? Please say yes! I've learnt A LOT from reading your thoughts, and also bought Market Wizards on your recommendation - which as you say, is brilliant.
Thanks a lot
James (Jimmy the Weasel on Betfair forum)
talkbet> wish I had as well! Said on the BF forum I was tempted because I didn't think the weather would be as bad as was forecast. But never expected quite so much play to be honest. Well done the draw layers who held their nerve!
James> To see how much has been matched on a selection simply click on the selection name when you have the market open. It will bring up a graph showing price / volume as well as a list of money matched at each price. (And a list of money available to match at each price). The "traded" figure includes the backs and lays.
Just so happens I kept a copy of it this time round. In fact, looking at it is was nearer £3 million than £2 million that was matched at sub 1.2 on the draw!
As for the blog, yes, I do intend to keep it going. Will probably make a few changes. It takes up a fair amount of time but I actually like it and it helps keep me disciplined. Not nice explaining to people that I fucked up and lost!
Glad you enjoyed the book. I dip into it all the time!
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