Wednesday, June 20, 2007

Scraping a win

Daily Result: £26.83

Didn't really trade well today. Never really got in the zone and was throwing any green I made away nearly as quickly as I was collecting in. Bit of lucky escape in the end to finish the day with a profit. Could easily have been a loss. So pleased with the win. Nothing wrong with small wins in my book. Especially if they're consistent. Afterall, they're better than losses! And if you can average a £25 win a day that's still £750 a month profit. Not bad for a hobby!

The only event I traded was the Hampshire v Warwickshire Friends Provident Trophy semi final. Considering my first bet was a £1k back of Hampshire in the 1.7x range, and they won, it begs the question what went wrong?!

Timing really is the answer. Don't think I read this game too well and ended up red Hampshire and green Warwickshire during the Warwickshire run chase. By that stage I didn't like my position. I wanted out, fancied Hampshire at odds against but didn't get out of the position. It was an interesting juncture. If I was new to the game I'd have backed Hampshire. But because of my exisiting position I simply held it not prepared to take the red at that stage. Not particularly pleased with that decision and will put some thought into it when I get some time.

I convinced myself that with Sangakkara at the crease Warwickshire could still make the chase and land my green. Of course, he was dismissed and the market moved rapidly against me. In fact it's fair to say I was astonished by the size of the movement. Enormous. So much so that I simply couldn't lay Warwickshire. Kept submitting new prices and people were falling over themselves to offer bigger prices to back. In the end it got so ridiculous I stopped trying. Figured a few more runs and the price would become more sensible. Of course, there was another very quick wicket and the Hampshire price plummeted. I managed to get on enough to leave a small green Hampshire and a large red Warwickshire. Wasn't much else I could do after that except hope for a quick Hampshire victory and a small win for me. So I set a stoploss point where I'd reduce my Warwickshire red if it looked like they make the chase and just had the game on in the background as I got on with other stuff. Luckily Hampshire won comfortably enough that their price didn't drift too much to reach my stop and I picked up £25 or so.

So not my best day trading wise. Though I do always feel good with a win of any size when I've basically screwed an event up and could have lost fairly heavily. Just didn't quite get things right today in several areas. Well done to those that did and hope I'm in better form for the start of the Twenty20 season on Friday. Bring it on! :-)

4 comments:

Jaco said...

A win is a win - and like you said, much better than a red figure.

I do think that it becomes even more critical being able to take small wins (and not chasing large ones with an associated over-the-top red) especially when you are having a good streak. It is a fine line to trod.

As long as the bank keeps building, we should all be happy :)

Anonymous said...

Hi BT. I think you have already answered your own question when you stated "I convinced myself" & "not prepared to take a red, at that early stage". At least the Cricket Gods smiled upon your situation. Two question BT. 1) have you read "Fatty Batter"? A book about a man who believes he's a master with the Bat. 2) When exactly is the big day with Emma?
Bye for now. Sad Act

Anonymous said...

Hey BFT. I'm curious to know what your 'job' actually is, what specifically is it that you write about / that your company does?

The Betfair Trader said...

Jaco> My approach is generally cautious along the lines you outline. Small consistent wins and all tht. Nice blog btw. I'll add a link.

Sad Act> With hindsight I got that one wrong. The red I was facing was nowhere near my stop so it was fair game to keep it open from that perspective. But I think the fact that if I was new to the match I'd have got on the other way says it all. I let the loss run too long and got caught badly by an unexpected movement on the fall of a wicket. And then another the ball or two after. Was lucky not to suffer a loss.

Haven't read Fatty Batter but have read some reviews today. Added it to the honeymoon reading list! The big day is August 18.

Anon> It's all in the "What's it all about" link on the right. I used to be a news reporter. Most recently freelanced writing sports and poker related articles. Not so much these days. Also knock stuff out for my own sites. My proper job is affiliate marketing related, predominantly in the gambling space.