Davydenko, Betfair and match fix allegations

Right, let's get it clear from the start. I ain't saying Davydenko fixed the result of his tennis match with Vassallo and deliberately lost. And I'm not publishing any comments that specifically say he did. What I will do is discuss the facts and people can draw their own conclusions, fair or foul.

Of course, the tennis forum on Betfair is always full of accusations of match fixing. Normally from sore losers who've done their proverbials. Every now and then though some of the allegations appear to have more merit than others and recently there's been a spate. Blogger One Percent has outlined a few examples here and especially here.

So why all the accusations about yesterday's match between Davydenko, the world number 4, and Vassallo, the world number who he? (He's 87th). Well let's look at a few facts. Bookmakers suspended betting when it was clear people were taking Vassallo at any price. Betfair itself has suspended settlement of the market pending "investigation and consultation with relevant regulatory authorities" and will be discussing the case in an "emergency meeting" this morning. The story has also hit the mainstream media. For example, you can read about it and hear Betfair's Mark Davies discuss the case on the BBC here. The ATP itself has yet to officially comment on the story but is presumably going to look in to the whole matter telling The Guardian it would be "innapropriate" to say anything until the facts are investigated.

So what caused all this gnashing of teeth? Simple really. Davydenko retired from the match allowing Vassallo to progress through to the next round. Nothing so unusual with that you'd think. Until you look at the betting patterns during the game. For starters £3.4 million had been matched before the game and during the first set - 10 times the usual amount for a game of this size. The odds were more than a little bizarre too. Of course, you could argue that people knew Davydenko was injured and likely to break down. But when you look at the prices you can't help but see why there are suspicions.

Davydenko's price started off ar around 1.2 on Betfair. He won the first set convincingly 6/2 - with no sign of injury - but his price had steadily drifted to 5.3! When a single break down in the second set he'd traded in the 9s!! He retired in the third with a pain in his left foot. Look at that in the cold light of day and the investigation is not entirely surprising. We can but wait for the results.

Of course, the unfolding match and result caused a meltdown on the Betfair tennis forum. Lots of burnt fingers and lots of big winners. Given the betting patterns you have to say Betfair is correct to suspend settlement, pending investigation, in accordance with its 2003 Memorandum of Understanding with the ATP.

That didn't stop the boys on the tennis forum reaching their own conclusions though. As well as the numerous threads on the subject there was a concerted effort to edit Davydenko's Wikipedia entry. The changes were being switched back almost as they were being made but a look through the history page for Davydenko shows you the kind of things being said. Among the early edits were this one (see the end of the 2007 section) and this one. (see Equipment and Trivia). They're still going on this morning, albeit more subtle.

So there you have it. In the red corner we have those accusing Davydenko of being involved in match fixing. In the blue those who say that's bollocks and he was unfortunate to suffer an injury and was correct in his decision to retire from the match rather than risk aggravating it. An investigation is ongoing and no doubt I'll have more to say about it when the outcome is announced.

UPDATE: 11.45am. Betfair, following consultation with the ATP, has decided to VOID all bets placed on this match. I had no financial interest in this match but the right, if unprecedented, decision for me.