Daily Result: £578.11
Isn't it funny how a big loss always seems to follow a big win? Happened a few times before although this time there are some clear reasons and, to be honest, although this beats my biggest previous loss by 31p, I'm not nearly as concerned about this one.
The reason for the more laid back approach to this loss is simple - I doubled my stakes. Which naturally means the loss itself would have been less than half what it was if I'd been playing at normal stakes. Which would still have been a hefty loss but still manageable.
So why the raise in stakes? Well, I've mentioned before several times that I intend to build my bank until I am trading in £1k blocks. And after a good month to date I decided to give it a go as a one off. I was interested to see if it's harder to get full amounts matched on an average market liquidity wise, and was pretty sure that Worcestershire would beat Yorkshire in today's Pro40 game, which they did, so decided to trade their odds on price.
So I can hear you asking what went wrong? Well, to be honest I'd reply what didn't? Had a bit of a shocker as it happens. Truth is that after just 10 overs of the game my participation and trading in it was virtually over as I was very close to my maximum allowable loss on any event. I did learn one rather obvious but important thing though in those ten overs. It's as blatantly plain to see as anything but I hadn't considered it. But the fact is this. If you have 1k in your account, and you trade in 1k blocks, if your first trade loses you can no longer trade in 1k blocks. Especially if you equalled out your red. Which means you're effectively trying to regain money you lost at a higher stake level from a lower stake. Not impossible of course but there's no doubt you're making things hard for yourself. So I decided that when I do eventually move up to trading 1k blocks I'll probably increase my daily starting balance from 1k to perhaps 1.5k. The maximum loss per event may need to be adjusted upwards a little too but not by much. I'm not quite ready for a move up yet, though will probably step up to £750 blocks next month if I get off to a good start.
Anyway, the match. Bizarre really. I fancied Worcestershire to win. I backed them to win. They won. What happened? Well, I backed them after an early wicket at 1.64. Worcs then went on a complete run frenzy of a few overs and I eventually cut my losses by laying at 2.18. As the boundaries continued to flow for Worcs I made a short term back of them, again at odds on, only for a wicket to fall immediately. At that point I was desperately trying to lay Worcs, but, even offering crazy prices creating huge underrounds, couldn't get the whole lot filled before another wicket fell. (Where's the bots when you need them eh?)
To cut a long story short within 7 overs of my backing Worcestershire at 1.64 there was thousands of pounds waiting to back them at 1.23 and I'd somehow managed to tie in over 500 red on each result!! Top trading I'm sure you'll agree. :-) I messed around a little more on the market but eventually just levelled the red out and left it rather than leaving a lk liability against Yorkshire and reducing my Worcs red by a £100 or so.
After this game I actually plotted a quick graph of rough price movements and put my trades onto it. It's like a visual nightmare. I really couldn't have got it much more wrong! It's an odd one. I got the result right, got an ok price (though certainly better value had been available) and screwed up. I don't think it was panic because the stakes were larger. More that the market was just running away from me rapidly and, true to form, I cut the loss. My belief that Worcestershire would win means I probably cut it too late and if anything that was the mistake. Equally, there are just going to be games where whatever you do turns out to be wrong. I've had them before and will have them again. Sometimes events pan out nicely for you. Sometimes they don't. Today they most definitley conspired against me! Just unfortunate that it all conincided with a test raise of stakes.
Still, I've learned a lesson from it all, am still well over £2.5k up on the month and, well, tomorrow is another day! Chin up, move on...
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