Daily Result: £36.51
Had one of those classic situations today where my instinct on the Surrey v Gloucestershire Pro40 match was spot on but I made a real mess of when to get involved.
Given the "stars" in the Surrey squad they're often priced pretty short before a ball is bowled and I thought tonight was no exception. Sure, Gloucestershire were missing John Lewis but Surrey were missing Rikki Clarke. Perhaps more importantly Ian Harvey was also back in the Gloucestershire team.
Anyway, I know runs get scored at the Oval but recently a strategy of laying the batting side in the first 6-8 overs has worked pretty well. So when the first ball of the Surrey innings beat the outside edge I layed them at 1.62 for £500. Big mistake! The next ball went for 4 wides and by the end of the over Surrey were 14-0!! And the carnage continued with an average runs per over sequence of 14, 9, 10, 9, 8.8, 9.6, 10.4 etc etc. And with no wickets to compile my misery I ended up bailing from my initial position within just a few overs at 1.41 - way before Surrey moved onto 73 from 7 and 100 from 11.1.
Anyway, by the end of the Surrey innings I'd turned the red around on them to a small green and was level Glos. There's an old saying in cricket that you should never judge a wicket until both teams have batted on it. So although Glocestershire needed a 6.97 r/r I was still tempted to lay Surrey again at sub 1.2. So after a few balls I did. And again I got it wrong. For although Glos made a decent start with Spearman finding boundaries the run rate started edging up and I ended up dumping the trade at a lower price to leave me a red on Surrey.
Anyway, in the end Gloucestershire made the chase. An awesome partnership from Marshall and Harvey did the damage and enabled me in the process to green up again. Though having come back from a bad position twice, when I got all green again I basically just stopped trading seriously and just got involved for smaller stakes. I guess I just didn't want to lose on the match after turning around two bad positions and was happy to make the £35.
So despite getting the result I fancied from the start I only managed to make a very small profit. The game was a great one to trade and I'm sure there were some pretty heavy wins on it as the prices yoyoed. Unfortunately I managed to screw the timing of trades up more than once and didn't really get to benefit from the big swings. Still, I guess you can't get it right all the time.
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