Profit making trading tip

Daily Result: £129.86

With no cricket today I looked in on some matches from the ATP Paris Masters and managed to keep the wedding funds ticking over. It's not that I want to discuss today though - but rather an example of how you can make money from other people who simply don't know the rules of what they bet on.

You see it all the time on Betfair. People asking around 10 minutes before the end of a close cricket match what happens if it's a tie? Or in tennis they ask what happens if a player retires injured? And all this despite some very clear market rules right next to the event they've been been betting on. Following such events there's then often a string of particularly irritating threads on the Betfair forums moaning about how everything is so unfair. I don't have any sympathy for these people. To be honest it amazes me that they bet, often large sums, without having the slightest idea of the rules covering the bets they're making.

Today provided a classic example. I couldn't believe the level of stupidity I was seeing! And more importantly what I saw is something that you and I - and other people who bother to read the market rules - can use to our collective advantage to make a profit with next time it happens.

The market that caught my attention was the outright winner market on the ATP Masters tour event from Paris. And in particular the price of the Fedex himself Roger Federer. Naturally, being so bloody good, Federer has had more than a bit of a busy season. He's tired. He's played over 90 matches this season, has just won the Madrid and Basel events, and has to prepare for the season closer from Shanghai starting on November 13th. So it's no surprise their were rumours doing the rounds that he would withdraw from this week's ATP Paris Masters citing exhaustion.

So how to profit from this?

Simple really. Betfair has no rule 4 on tennis betting. So if Federer, who was a 1.4x shot to win Paris, withdraws that makes all the 20.0 and 30.0 odds on some of the other players likely to win in his abscence rather tasty. The obvious thing to do is back them at high odds and lay them much lower as the news that he might retire spreads.

But, of course, making bets on players in this way runs the risk that either Federer will announce he's playing before you can lay. Still not a bad strategy. But there is a better one.

Because as news that Federer might retire spreads "shrewdies" who hear the news all start laying Federer. They push his price out and no doubt think they're being all sneaky and taking mug money as his price drifts to 1.5, 1.6 and out to above evens as it did today. (Some numpty even layed him at 3.2!).

But the opposite is true. It's the layers who are the mugs. Why? Because of the rules. Which clearly state, in bright red bold letters right next to the market:

If a player failes to start this tournament all bets on that player will be void.

So as all the "shrewd" Federer layers rush to lay him it's the backers who are getting the best deal. They can't lose! It's as near to a free trade as you can get. If Federer does retire you get your stake back. If he plays your back of 1.9 - or whatever it was you got - can suddenly be layed at the proper price of 1.4x again. Or maybe a touch higher if there is an injury concern.

That's a risk-free 40-50 tick profit! Which you could use to go all green if you wished. Simple. And all because you bothered to read the rules.

As it is unfortunately Federer did retire and my green disappeared with him. But the same principle can be applied to many sporting events where a similar situation occurs. It's a profitable risk-free play and is well worth keeping your eyes out for similar positions.

To summarize:

1) Find an event where there are rumours a player may withdraw before it starts. The favourite is best. Phil Taylor in darts would be another fantastic example.

2) Check the market rules. If they clearly state all bets on a player will be void if he withdraws before the event starts watch that player's price.

3) If there is no rule 4 to be applied on the market there is an option of backing other likely winners at high odds. (Obviously the shorter price the fave the bigger the odds you will get)

4) More important than 3) though watch for a drift in the price of the player who may withdraw. This is generally caused by people who haven't read the rules thinking they're laying a great price. (It may also be proper shrewdies playing the market in the opposite direction but this is riskier.)

5) Back at a higher price than you would normally be able to.

6) If the player withdraws you get your stake back. If they don't their price will contract again giving you a nice risk-free profit on your trade.

I guess there's one more thing as well - if you spot any opportunities like this leave a comment on the blog so I can take advantage too!

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