Daily Result: £3.53
Strange how such a small loss can be so much more annoying than some of the much larger ones I've managed to rack up in the past. But today's just annoyed the shit out of me on several levels.
I guess the root of it all is the fact that I've had a pretty piss poor month. Bearly in profit the result is going to be markedly down on previous months. I realise I've traded a lot less this month, have suffered three pretty substantial drops, and so a profit of any type is better than a loss. Really though the one thing I'm very keen to do is to avoid my first losing month. So any loss at this stage is annoying.
I lost the £4 (sounds ludicrous I know but I'm bugged about it!) on the 4th ODI between South Africa and India. Won't go into the match itself suffice to say it followed almost exactly the pattern of the previous two completed games. South Africa batting first, struggling, recovering, making a decent total and then skittling India for an easy victory.
At the change of innings I was just over £100 green the pair. I'd been trading cautiously to ensure a big red was never possible and was pretty happy with the situation. Until I fucked up at the start of the Indian innings. I backed India, failed to lay in time (I was in a queue at my price) and they lost a wicket. No worries I thought. I'll let it run. Even if they lose another wicket I'll still be about level. A few overs without a wicket and I'll be back to where I was. Well I think you know where this is going - there was another wicket! So I dumped the position and was around £13 red the pair.
The Saffers price was very short by now so I just quickly messed around and got both sides back into a small green position and then just left it for the most part and just had the game on in the background. Basically I wasn't prepared to lose on the match.
Towards the end I was tempted back in. In all honesty India should have cruised this match. They were always up with the run rate - at least enough for it not to be a worry - but just kept tossing wickets away with suicidal run outs and bizarre shot selections.
Anyway, with South Africa at 1.01, India with 3 wickets left and and a required run rate of around 5.5 an over I decided to lay off my small South African green to create a hefty Indian green. It was less than £10 anyway and it wouldn't have been the most outrageous game of cricket if India got close to - or even made - the chase.
Somehow though I managed to overlay the South Africans. How I don't know. It's not exactly rocket science to work out what a lay of 1.01 is going to cost you. But miscalculate I did, didn't bother using the Betfair future position calculator, and layed. Which resulted in my paltry Saffers green turn into a £3.53 red! With no chance whatsover of making it green again as more wickets fell and the price remained at 1.01. :-(
So there you have it. From a moderate green to a small green to a red, via some arch stupidity and my inability to do my one times tables! A shocker. Which required the calming effect of a few evening pints!
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2 comments:
fHello, Very good blog you have here. Can you recommend any books, articles or other resources on trading?
Hi,
That's a great idea. I really should get a list of resources together.
I've listed some useful api trading software on the right hand column of the blog.
As far as books go I haven't read any specific trading ones. There are lots out - and often they're listed on the General Betting forum on Betfair, but one that has been recommended to me and I've ordered is Market Wizards by Jack D Schwagner. Although not about Betfair specifically the general trading advice and principles sound very good.
As for online resources I've been asked to write a series of articles about Betfair and trading for a new site that is being launched. I'll add a link as soon as it all goes live.
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