Monday, January 08, 2007

First loss of the new year

Yesterday's Result: £276.58

Whoops. Not the kind of loss I was hoping for near the start of a new year. Especially as it drops my profit below the £10k mark after I managed to creep through it yesterday. Truth is I just had a bit of a nightmare on the American Football. Specifically the Dallas Cowboys at Seattle Seahawks.

The game itself was amazing. A 93 yeard kick off return, A 67 yard touchdown pass, a defensive inzone fumble that looked like a touchdown but was ruled a safety, a field goal fumble in the dying seconds that would have changed the result - and a last play Hail Mary that nearly came off!

But it had all gone more than a little wrong for me way before the end of the match. Seattle ended up winning the match 21-20 which was doubley annoying as they were my pre-match pick. Not that it was ever in the bag until the last play was over.

First mistake was I got trigger happy on the mouse early doors. Thought the Seahawks had scored a touchdown, submitted the bet and realised the ball had been fumbled. So was immediately in an all red position - which I managed to increase through a couple of losing trades. Anyway, bottom line was before too long I was looking at a £250 all red position.

Still, there was plenty of time to reduce that and I did - back to around £130 red the pair with around 7 minutes to go which I was happy to settle with. There was plenty of scope to get one side green with a larger red the other but the game was close and I fancied the limited loss rather than a gamble on the winner.

So what happened? Disaster really. The Cowboys were on a drive, and with the clock ticking down just needed to score to effectively win. When it looked like they had a 1st down at the 1 yard line I backed them and submitted a lower lay - simply looking to reduce my red. Managed to lay a small part of it off but a play review showed the 1st down was missed so they went for a field goal. By then the price was out past my back point. But rather than add to my red I decided the Cowboys wouldn't miss and once the ball sailed through the posts I could get out of my position no problems.

So, of course, the Cowboys missed. Romo caught the ball, and let it slip as he went to place it. No kick was attempted and Romo had effectively let the Cowboy's entire season slip through his fingers. To add injury to insult made a beeline for the inzone but was bought down a yard or so short. Leaving me with a £280 odd red on Seattle. With nothing I could do about it. I'd more than doubled my loss on the match within a minute or two!

Bollocks basically. And I've had a good look at that last trade. Even on my match notes I'd written settle for the loss. But the situation just seemed a no brainer to reduce the red. I must have felt a little uneasy with it though as I only placed a half-sized trade knowing that if it went wrong I wouldn't be able to get out.

Still, it's all a great reminder at the start of a new year that nothing should be taken for granted. I've put the loss behind me and hopefully it will be onwards and upwards - starting with the Australia v England Twenty20 on Tuesday morning.

3 comments:

Anonymous said...

All right trader, good to see you back on line, always read with interest.

"Even on my match notes I'd written settle for the loss". I guess you must have some kind of chasing demon deep inside you somewhere, better watch out for him.

The Betfair Trader said...

Lol. Yes indeed. I think the demon lurks in us all waiting for an opportunity!

The thing that got me about the last trade was I had settled for a loss. By that I mean I wasn't going to put a lot more cash into play to get a green position. For the sake of knocking a small amount of red from one side I added considerably to the red on the other though. (I added £250 red, layed some of the back off but didn't get filled before the market drifted with the call reversal on the 1st down.)

Was then left in an awful position. Around £100 red one side. £280 odd the other. Or a larger all red the pair than I'd been seconds earlier. By that point there was nothing I could do. Was locked in really. Given the odds of missing a field goal I couldn't justify levelling out at the price so just sat there and swore more than a little mildly when it was missed!

With hindsight maybe I should have just left it alone. It was late and I was more than happy with how much I'd reduced my worst position by. Just thought with a 1st down with a yard to go the odds were heavily on a touch down, let alone a field goal though. Still, could have been worse and I live to trade another day!

Anonymous said...

That play cost me a grand. :-(.