Thursday, March 29, 2007

Getting value by listening

Daily Result: £263.43

Happy with today's result. Another £260 odd is another good chunk to add to the wedding funds. And keeps the monthly total ticking over nicely after two weeks off at the start of the month. Of the £263 I made in the West Indies v New Zealand match though I'm most pleased with a small win of £34.94 on the highest first 10 over total market. Let me explain...

Put simply I thought the price I took on New Zealand having the highest first 10 over partnership was screaming value. One of those opportunities that is just presented on a plate and can seem just so obvious that you almost completely overlook it. So why did I feel my 1.88 was value?

Well, New Zealand won the toss and chose to field. Apart from anything else it wasn't the clearest of days, there'd been rain around the ground and one could again expect some early movement for the New Zealand bowlers. But far more importantly the West Indian captain did an interview after losing the toss, importantly a day after his team suffered another batting collapse, and clearly said, before stressing again, that the main aim was to simply see through the early movement without the loss of a wicket and start racking the runs up after that. Add to that the difficulties even Matthew Hayden had during the first overs in the morning at the same ground before his sensational 158 and close to evens on New Zealand having the highest 10 over total seemed a steal!

So I took the price. Small stakes only, as ever for me with the subsidiary markets. It didn't take long for the price to fall, and then crash once the Windies batsmen got in and tried to execute what Lara had said they would. I layed off at 1.0x and pocketed a nice profit. All because I simply listened to what Brian Lara said. He spelt the early game plan out in black and white. And even with the unpredictability of Chris Gayle at the top of the order (and I was concerned) I defy anyone not to take the 1.88! For the record the West Indies made just 27 in their first 10 overs. Like I say, it can sometimes pay to just simply listen!

The game itself didn't go to plan for the Windies. A slow start, in which they lost wickets anyway, (there was wicked movement for Bond in particular) followed by the regular loss of wickets, and some comedy batting at the end, reduced them to 177 all out off just 44.4 overs. Shocking stuff really. New Zealand knocked the total off with ease, despite the loss of a couple of early wickets, and picked up the points. They're looking good for the semi finals now and those who've long been saying it will be a New Zealand v Australia final could well be right.

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